545 Willow Creek Dr

Camdenton, MO 65020

$149,900C+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Built 1976 · Other · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,705/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $442/mo
• Annual: $5,305/yr
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.64%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#186 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Camdenton R-III (rural): math 46% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #68 of 324 in MO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 272 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Camden County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 1.7% in Camdenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.