545 Willow Creek Dr · Camdenton, MO 65020

$149,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Other public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1976 1.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 3-bath home offers 1,392 square feet of living space along with a spacious 528 square foot attached 2-car garage. Conveniently located just moments from Camdenton shopping and only 10 minutes from Osage Beach shopping, restaurants, and amenities, this property is full of potential. Whether you're looking for a fixer-upper to make your own or searching for your next investment opportunity, this home offers excellent equity potential and would make a great flip project. With a functional layout, desirable location, and room to add value, this is an opportunity you won’t want to miss.

Key facts

• 1.2 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 29 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Well water (shared well); No sewer service
• Home design: Single-family detached home; Two levels; Fixer condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Sloped, gently sloping, wooded lot; Asphalt-paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Basement: Partially finished basement; Walk-out access; Partial basement
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric forced air heating
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 1.7% in Camdenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#186 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Camdenton R-III (rural): math 46% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #68 of 324 in MO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 272 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Camden County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,651 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.64%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,810
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $39,349
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65020

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,705 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $677/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,146

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $527	-5% $484	+0% $442	+5% $400	+10% $357
Rent	-10% $307	-5% $375	+0% $442	+5% $509	+10% $577
Rate	-1.0pp $518	-0.5pp $480	base $442	+0.5pp $403	+1.0pp $364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 8 DOM
18. 2026-05-22
    listed $149,900 Active
19. 2022-12-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $677 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,454 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$777/yr (+$65/mo · 114.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$677
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $3,003
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$721
• After-tax cash flow: $4,584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Camdenton R-III
• NCES district ID: 2906990
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,496
• Composite: 39.96/100
• National rank: #3838
• State rank: #68 of 324 in MO

Livability — Camdenton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #186
• US rank: #9869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Camden County · 21,945 people
• City population: 14,748
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 14,748
• Household income: $62,392
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 166.0

Population outlook (Camden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,585 people
• By 2030: 44,476 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 43,513 · -2.4%
• By 2050: 41,705 · -6.5%
• By 2075: 36,903 · -17.2%
• By 2100: 30,164 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Camden

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.4% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.8pp toward R · 2008: -28.5pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+54.2 2012: R+39.3 2008: R+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.71%
• Current HPI: 185.4254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $149,900 LOBR
• 2022-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $677 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.