3041 W Simon Cir

Show Low, AZ 85901

$699,000C

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,273 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax + insurance: −$743
• HOA: −$120
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,470
• Net cashflow: $1,002/mo
• Annual: $12,019/yr
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.91%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $195,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $699k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $699k).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($615k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $615k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 895 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $459k; list at $699k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.