3041 W Simon Cir · Show Low, AZ 85901

$699,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,273 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 2005 7,840 sqft lot $214/sqft · 15% below area Est $819k · 15% under $120/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover effortless mountain living in this 3,273 sq ft home tucked inside a gated community, offering exceptional space, privacy, and year-round comfort. The home sits on a .18-acre lot surrounded by towering pines and the soothing sounds of a nearby creek--peaceful and secluded without feeling remote. An additional adjoining parcel is available, allowing buyers the rare opportunity to expand the property to a total of .41 acres (MLS # 259362). The thoughtfully designed interior features four bedrooms, including one ideal for a home office or study, along with a split floor plan perfect for multi-generational living or hosting guests. Recent upgrades include new granite countertops, a new roof, smart-home automation, LED lighting, and numerous modern enhancements throughout.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $699k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $699k).
• Recommended offer: $615k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($615k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $459k; list at $699k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $615,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.91%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $819,063
• List price: $699,000
• Delta: -14.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3401 W Hansen --	0.55mi	4/3.0	3,245 (-1%)	10mo	$560,000	$173	62
2400 W Bench Rd	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,867 (-12%)	4mo	$1,000,000	$349	53
3031 W Alpine Ridge Rd	0.71mi	4/3.0	3,038 (-7%)	2mo	$885,000	$291	51
3861 W Hawthorn Rd	0.52mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,987 (-9%)	4mo	$1,190,000	$398	49
710 N 39th Dr	0.63mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,422 (+5%)	10mo	$830,000	$243	46
4270 W Sugar Pine Loop	0.71mi	4/4.0	3,372 (+3%)	16mo	$1,125,000	$334	43
101 S Falling Leaf Rd	0.59mi	4/4.0	3,081 (-6%)	17mo	$1,150,000	$373	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-49,556
• Equity at exit: $104,223

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $38,665
• Equity at exit: $60,437

Cash invested: $195,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,916/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,470
• Net cashflow: $1,002

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,732

Max offer price $699,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,397	-5% $1,199	+0% $1,002	+5% $804	+10% $606
Rent	-10% $449	-5% $725	+0% $1,002	+5% $1,278	+10% $1,555
Rate	-1.0pp $1,354	-0.5pp $1,179	base $1,002	+0.5pp $820	+1.0pp $636

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,750
• Closing costs: $20,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4500 W Hackberry Ln #161 Show Low, AZ	4.0	3.5	2761	$7,000	$2.54	44d	1	0.96mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-29
   price $699,000 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Discover effortless mountain living in this 3,273 sq ft home tucked inside a gated community, offering exceptional space, privacy, and year-round comfort. The home sits on a .18-acre lot surrounded by towering pines and the soothing sounds of a nearby creek--peaceful and secluded without feeling remote. An additional adjoining parcel is available, allowing buyers the rare opportunity to expand the property to a total of .41 acres (MLS # 259362). The thoughtfully designed interior features four bedrooms, including one ideal for a home office or study, along with a split floor plan perfect for multi-generational living or hosting guests. Recent upgrades include new granite countertops, a new roof, smart-home automation, LED lighting, and numerous modern enhancements throughout.

2. 2026-01-31
   price $759,000 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Discover effortless mountain living in this 3,273 sq ft home tucked inside a gated community, offering exceptional space, privacy, and year-round comfort. The home sits on a .18-acre lot surrounded by towering pines and the soothing sounds of a nearby creek--peaceful and secluded without feeling remote. An additional adjoining parcel is available, allowing buyers the rare opportunity to expand the property to a total of .41 acres (MLS # 259362). The thoughtfully designed interior features four bedrooms, including one ideal for a home office or study, along with a split floor plan perfect for multi-generational living or hosting guests. Recent upgrades include new granite countertops, a new roof, smart-home automation, LED lighting, and numerous modern enhancements throughout.

3. 2026-01-18
   price $789,000 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Discover effortless mountain living in this 3,273 sq ft home tucked inside a gated community, offering exceptional space, privacy, and year-round comfort. The home sits on a .18-acre lot surrounded by towering pines and the soothing sounds of a nearby creek--peaceful and secluded without feeling remote. An additional adjoining parcel is available, allowing buyers the rare opportunity to expand the property to a total of .41 acres (MLS # 259362). The thoughtfully designed interior features four bedrooms, including one ideal for a home office or study, along with a split floor plan perfect for multi-generational living or hosting guests. Recent upgrades include new granite countertops, a new roof, smart-home automation, LED lighting, and numerous modern enhancements throughout.

4. 2025-12-17
   price $799,999 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Discover effortless mountain living in this 3,273 sq ft home tucked inside a gated community, offering exceptional space, privacy, and year-round comfort. The home sits on a .18-acre lot surrounded by towering pines and the soothing sounds of a nearby creek--peaceful and secluded without feeling remote. An additional adjoining parcel is available, allowing buyers the rare opportunity to expand the property to a total of .41 acres (MLS # 259362). The thoughtfully designed interior features four bedrooms, including one ideal for a home office or study, along with a split floor plan perfect for multi-generational living or hosting guests. Recent upgrades include new granite countertops, a new roof, smart-home automation, LED lighting, and numerous modern enhancements throughout.

5. 2025-11-24
   listed $849,000 Active 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Discover effortless mountain living in this 3,273 sq ft home tucked inside a gated community, offering exceptional space, privacy, and year-round comfort. The home sits on a .18-acre lot surrounded by towering pines and the soothing sounds of a nearby creek--peaceful and secluded without feeling remote. An additional adjoining parcel is available, allowing buyers the rare opportunity to expand the property to a total of .41 acres (MLS # 259362). The thoughtfully designed interior features four bedrooms, including one ideal for a home office or study, along with a split floor plan perfect for multi-generational living or hosting guests. Recent upgrades include new granite countertops, a new roof, smart-home automation, LED lighting, and numerous modern enhancements throughout.

6. 2025-11-10
   historical $849,000 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Discover effortless mountain living in this 3,273 sq ft home tucked inside a gated community, offering exceptional space, privacy, and year-round comfort. The home sits on a .18-acre lot surrounded by towering pines and the soothing sounds of a nearby creek--peaceful and secluded without feeling remote. An additional adjoining parcel is available, allowing buyers the rare opportunity to expand the property to a total of .41 acres (MLS # 259362). The thoughtfully designed interior features four bedrooms, including one ideal for a home office or study, along with a split floor plan perfect for multi-generational living or hosting guests. Recent upgrades include new granite countertops, a new roof, smart-home automation, LED lighting, and numerous modern enhancements throughout.

7. 2025-04-24
   price $839,000
8. 2025-04-05
   price $848,900
9. 2025-03-28
   price $849,900
10. 2021-12-22
    soldstatus $459,000
11. 2021-12-22
    soldstatus $459,000
12. 2010-11-18
    soldstatus $250,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,916 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,613 · $384/mo
• Expected delta: +$698/yr (+$58/mo · 17.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $84,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,155
• − Property taxes: −$3,916
• − Insurance: −$4,998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,720
• − Management: −$6,720
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$20,335
• Taxable income: $717
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$172
• After-tax cash flow: $11,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+179.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $699,000 WMMLS
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $759,000 WMMLS
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $789,000 WMMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $799,999 WMMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $849,000 WMMLS
• 2025-11-10 Coming Soon $849,000 WMMLS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $839,000 WMMLS
• 2025-04-05 Price Changed $848,900 WMMLS
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $849,900 WMMLS
• 2021-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $459,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-22 Sold (MLS) $459,000 WMMLS
• 2010-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,916 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.