3644 Stalker Rd

Gananda, NY 14502

$249,000C+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,130 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$733
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $331/mo
• Annual: $3,975/yr
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.70%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Penfield Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #67 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Scribner Road Elementary School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #21 of 2,108 statewide, top 1%, 567 students, 17% FRL); Bay Trail Middle School (math 59% / reading 78%, grade A, #94 of 729 statewide, top 13%, 1,113 students, 23% FRL); Penfield Senior High School (math 98% / reading 72%, grade A, #369 of 1,100 statewide, top 34%, 1,424 students, 25% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Gananda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.