3644 Stalker Rd · Gananda, NY 14502

$249,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,130 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1956 0.62 ac lot Est $435k · 43% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Over 2000 sf of design perfection! Complete renovation with meticulous attention to detail & functionality. Conveniently located just off Rt 441 in Penfield School District. Deep yard has mature trees & garage/shed. Modern open floorplan with impressive architectural ceilings. Stunning quartz kitchen offers butcher block island breakfast bar, tile back splash, soft close cabinets with under/over lighting, pantry, & stainless appliance package. 1st floor master suite with tile shower & barndoor style sliding mirror. Spacious 1st flr laundry room. Tons of closets & storage space over both garages. Almost the entire house is NEW: Vinyl & stone exterior, vinyl windows, aluminum trim, gutters, circle driveway, patio, landscaping, garage doors, all wiring and 200 amp service, all Pex plumbing, duct work, central AC, 200 new studs, closed cell spray foam insulation (whole house), all drywall, fresh paint, subfloors, carpet, luxury vinyl plank flooring, kitchen, bathrooms. .. All permits (electric, plumbing, structural, insulation) & C of O available. Delayed Negotiations - Offers Due Monday 9/13 10AM.

Key facts

• Private yard
• Soft-close cabinetry
• Butcher block island

Tags

• PRIVATE YARD
• MATURE TREES
• BUTCHER BLOCK ISLAND
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETRY
• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with electricity; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction
• Construction: Stone and vinyl siding; Spray foam insulation; Asphalt roof; Block and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Patio; Shed(s)/storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Quartz counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Two main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Quartz counters; Main level primary; Primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Gananda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Penfield Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #67 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Scribner Road Elementary School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #21 of 2,108 statewide, top 1%, 567 students, 17% FRL); Bay Trail Middle School (math 59% / reading 78%, grade A, #94 of 729 statewide, top 13%, 1,113 students, 23% FRL); Penfield Senior High School (math 98% / reading 72%, grade A, #369 of 1,100 statewide, top 34%, 1,424 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $249,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.70%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $434,520
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3644 Stalker Rd	0.00mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,130 (0%)	1mo	$350,000	$164	90
3519 W Walworth Rd	0.55mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,044 (-4%)	9mo	$365,000	$179	51
2100 Monroe Wayne County Line Rd	0.70mi	2/3.0	2,040 (-4%)	13mo	$614,000	$301	44
3567 W Walworth Rd	0.52mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,835 (-14%)	6mo	$375,000	$204	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-19,011
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $11,588
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14502

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$629 /mo · $7,551/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,581

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $472	-5% $402	+0% $331	+5% $261	+10% $190
Rent	-10% $94	-5% $213	+0% $331	+5% $450	+10% $568
Rate	-1.0pp $457	-0.5pp $395	base $331	+0.5pp $267	+1.0pp $201

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
294 Mildahn Rd Walworth, NY	3.0	2.5	1440	$3,000	$2.08	20d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   listed $249,000 Active
3. 2021-10-26
   soldstatus $245,000
4. 2021-10-22
   soldstatus $245,000 Closed Sale or Rented 1152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1152 chars)

   Over 2000 sf of design perfection! Complete renovation with meticulous attention to detail & functionality. Conveniently located just off Rt 441 in Penfield School District. Deep yard has mature trees & garage/shed. Modern open floorplan with impressive architectural ceilings. Stunning quartz kitchen offers butcher block island breakfast bar, tile back splash, soft close cabinets with under/over lighting, pantry, & stainless appliance package. 1st floor master suite with tile shower & barndoor style sliding mirror. Spacious 1st flr laundry room. Tons of closets & storage space over both garages. Almost the entire house is NEW: Vinyl & stone exterior, vinyl windows, aluminum trim, gutters, circle driveway, patio, landscaping, garage doors, all wiring and 200 amp service, all Pex plumbing, duct work, central AC, 200 new studs, closed cell spray foam insulation (whole house), all drywall, fresh paint, subfloors, carpet, luxury vinyl plank flooring, kitchen, bathrooms. .. All permits (electric, plumbing, structural, insulation) & C of O available. Delayed Negotiations - Offers Due Monday 9/13 10AM.

5. 2021-09-13
   status Pending Sale 1152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1152 chars)

   Over 2000 sf of design perfection! Complete renovation with meticulous attention to detail & functionality. Conveniently located just off Rt 441 in Penfield School District. Deep yard has mature trees & garage/shed. Modern open floorplan with impressive architectural ceilings. Stunning quartz kitchen offers butcher block island breakfast bar, tile back splash, soft close cabinets with under/over lighting, pantry, & stainless appliance package. 1st floor master suite with tile shower & barndoor style sliding mirror. Spacious 1st flr laundry room. Tons of closets & storage space over both garages. Almost the entire house is NEW: Vinyl & stone exterior, vinyl windows, aluminum trim, gutters, circle driveway, patio, landscaping, garage doors, all wiring and 200 amp service, all Pex plumbing, duct work, central AC, 200 new studs, closed cell spray foam insulation (whole house), all drywall, fresh paint, subfloors, carpet, luxury vinyl plank flooring, kitchen, bathrooms. .. All permits (electric, plumbing, structural, insulation) & C of O available. Delayed Negotiations - Offers Due Monday 9/13 10AM.

6. 2021-09-07
   listed $229,900 Active 1152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1152 chars)

   Over 2000 sf of design perfection! Complete renovation with meticulous attention to detail & functionality. Conveniently located just off Rt 441 in Penfield School District. Deep yard has mature trees & garage/shed. Modern open floorplan with impressive architectural ceilings. Stunning quartz kitchen offers butcher block island breakfast bar, tile back splash, soft close cabinets with under/over lighting, pantry, & stainless appliance package. 1st floor master suite with tile shower & barndoor style sliding mirror. Spacious 1st flr laundry room. Tons of closets & storage space over both garages. Almost the entire house is NEW: Vinyl & stone exterior, vinyl windows, aluminum trim, gutters, circle driveway, patio, landscaping, garage doors, all wiring and 200 amp service, all Pex plumbing, duct work, central AC, 200 new studs, closed cell spray foam insulation (whole house), all drywall, fresh paint, subfloors, carpet, luxury vinyl plank flooring, kitchen, bathrooms. .. All permits (electric, plumbing, structural, insulation) & C of O available. Delayed Negotiations - Offers Due Monday 9/13 10AM.

7. 2021-03-12
   historical
8. 2021-03-09
   soldstatus $77,000
9. 2021-03-07
   listed $99,900 Active
10. 2021-03-03
    soldstatus $77,000 Closed Sale or Rented
11. 2021-01-16
    status Pending Sale
12. 2021-01-11
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
13. 2021-01-08
    listed $52,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,551 · $629/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,551 · $629/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$7,551
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,880
• − Management: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $253
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$61
• After-tax cash flow: $3,914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622710
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $74,802
• Composite: 68.37/100
• National rank: #347
• State rank: #67 of 590 in NY

Livability — Gananda

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gananda, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,515

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.25%
• Current HPI: 242.5682
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+374.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $249,000 UNYREIS
• 2021-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-22 Sold (MLS) $245,000 UNYREIS
• 2021-09-13 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2021-09-07 Listed $229,900 UNYREIS
• 2021-03-12 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2021-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-07 Listed $99,900 UNYREIS
• 2021-03-03 Sold (MLS) $77,000 UNYREIS
• 2021-01-16 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2021-01-11 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2021-01-08 Listed $52,500 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,551 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.