630 Jefferson St

Lyndon, KS 66451

$45,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,018 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $938/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $437/mo
• Annual: $5,249/yr
• Cap rate: 17.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.66%
• DSCR: 2.85
• 1% rule: 2.09%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($938 rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#105 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lyndon (rural): math 27% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #72 of 169 in KS (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lyndon Elem (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #423 of 684 statewide, top 66%, 303 students, 41% FRL); Lyndon High (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #60 of 327 statewide, top 24%, 133 students, 26% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Osage County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osage County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.