630 Jefferson St · Lyndon, KS 66451

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,018 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1920 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Corner Location, 1920ish two bedroom, one bath home. Covered front porch. Being sold "as is" . Needs your TLC. Nice size 28 x 24 detached garage built in 1970. Measurements, sq ftg, taxes are approx. and m/l. * Note: back bedroom has soft spots in the floor.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Corner location
• Detached garage

Tags

• CORNER LOCATION
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Single-story (1,018 above-grade finished area)
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Lot dimensions approximately 82 x 120

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace
• Interior features: Wall furnace heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($938 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#105 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lyndon (rural): math 27% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #72 of 169 in KS (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lyndon High (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #60 of 327 statewide, top 24%, 133 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Osage County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Osage County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.66%
• DSCR: 2.85
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,674
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
311 E 8th St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,070 (+5%)	8mo	$99,000	$93	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.04×
• Total profit: $38,292
• Equity at exit: $25,555

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.28×
• Total profit: $91,675
• Equity at exit: $44,150

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66451

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $938 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $590/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $385

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $463	-5% $450	+0% $437	+5% $425	+10% $412
Rent	-10% $363	-5% $400	+0% $437	+5% $474	+10% $512
Rate	-1.0pp $460	-0.5pp $449	base $437	+0.5pp $426	+1.0pp $414

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $45,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 46 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $54,000
19. 2026-05-08
    price $59,000
20. 2026-04-22
    price $69,000
21. 2026-04-14
    listed $75,000 Active
22. 2022-04-06
    listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $590 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $634 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$45/yr (+$4/mo · 7.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$590
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$901
• − Management: −$901
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $4,814
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,155
• After-tax cash flow: $4,094/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lyndon
• NCES district ID: 2009000
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,874
• Composite: 28.7/100
• National rank: #6688
• State rank: #72 of 169 in KS

Livability — Lyndon

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #6079

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyndon, KS
• Population (ZIP): 1,809

Population outlook (Osage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,418 people
• By 2030: 15,072 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 14,339 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 13,708 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 13,221 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 12,915 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 11% Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Osage

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 24.7% · R 72.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -30.3pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+43.3 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+30.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.02%
• Current HPI: 252.3861
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+35.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $54,000 Sunflower MLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $59,000 Sunflower MLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $69,000 Sunflower MLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-14 Listed $75,000 Sunflower MLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2022-04-06 Listed $40,000 Sunflower MLS as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $590 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.