10201 N 99th Ave #104

Peoria, AZ 85345

$155,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Active · 143 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,571/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $170/mo
• Annual: $2,040/yr
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.70%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AZ, #3,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, health & safety F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sun Valley Elementary School (math 23% / reading 29%, grade F, #623 of 1,109 statewide, top 57%, 806 students, 65% FRL); Raymond S. Kellis (math 27% / reading 34%, grade F, #114 of 381 statewide, top 30%, 1,817 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 35% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 488 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 85% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.2% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.