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10201 N 99th Ave #104
C Composite 55.15
Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +18.0/30.0
  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • DSCR +5.9/10.0
  • 1% rule +5.3/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.8/5.0
  • Schools +2.8/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.7/5.0
  • Appreciation +2.5/10.0
  • Manufactured-home adj. -4.8

$150,000

10201 N 99th Ave #104 · Peoria, AZ 85345
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · Manufactured · 188 Days on market
Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 2024 Good condition $95/sqft · 19% below area Est $185k · 19% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

ON LEASED LAND, This beautiful 2024-built manufactured home in a 55+ gated resort-style community! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a modern open layout with a fenced in yard and covered patio. Enjoy amenities including a pool and spa, pickleball courts, and a dog park, with a new recreation center coming May 2026.

Key facts

  • 2 parking spots
  • Community pool
  • Built 2024

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
  • Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.2% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AZ, #3,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, health & safety F.
  • Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Sun Valley Elementary School (math 23% / reading 29%, grade F, #623 of 1,109 statewide, top 57%, 806 students, 65% FRL); Raymond S. Kellis (math 27% / reading 34%, grade F, #114 of 381 statewide, top 30%, 1,817 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 35% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents flat; 556 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 90d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.05% ✓
Cap rate
8.00%
Cash-on-cash
6.09%
DSCR
1.27
GRM
7.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$184,615
List price
$150,000
Delta
-18.75%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
18 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
10201 N 99th Ave #155 0.00mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,536 (-2%) 2mo $87,500 $57 89
10701 N 99th Ave #186 0.46mi 3/2.0 1,440 (-9%) 3mo $50,000 $35 62
10701 N 99th Ave #61 0.46mi 3/2.0 1,560 (-1%) 19mo $85,500 $55 61
10701 N 99 Ave #209 0.49mi 3/2.0 1,440 (-9%) 6mo $83,000 $58 58
10701 N 99th Ave #22 0.51mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,624 (+3%) 12mo $55,000 $34 57
10701 N 99th Ave #51 0.46mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,440 (-9%) 4mo $23,000 $16 56
11275 N 99th Ave #86 0.71mi 3/2.0 1,454 (-8%) 0mo $249,999 $172 54
11275 N 99th Ave #145 0.68mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,440 (-9%) 0mo $169,231 $118 49
11275 N 99th Ave #131 0.60mi 3/2.0 1,746 (+11%) 6mo $270,000 $155 49
11275 N 99th Ave #65 0.71mi 3/2.0 1,696 (+8%) 8mo $265,000 $156 48
11275 N 99th Ave #61 0.73mi 3/2.0 1,402 (-11%) 7mo $268,500 $192 42
11275 N 99th Ave #119 0.69mi 3/2.0 1,392 (-12%) 8mo $265,000 $190 41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-9.6%
Equity multiple
0.66×
Total profit
$-14,407
Equity at exit
$22,365
10-year hold
IRR
-3.8%
Equity multiple
0.78×
Total profit
$-9,445
Equity at exit
$12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Arizona
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
19 active · 9 under contract
Months of supply
12.7 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$97,500 ($74/sqft)
Median days on market
99 d
This list price
84% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+58.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85345

Home prices YoY
-19.8%
Rents YoY
0.6%
Active inventory
556
Price-to-rent
7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,582 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
−$787
Tax est. 1.5%
−$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
Insurance
−$62
HOA
−$0
Lot rent leased land?
−$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
−$332
Net cashflow
$213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312
Max offer price $150,000
Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $317 -5% $265 +0% $213 +5% $161 +10% $109
Rent -10% $88 -5% $151 +0% $213 +5% $276 +10% $338
Rate -1.0pp $289 -0.5pp $251 base $213 +0.5pp $174 +1.0pp $135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$37,500
Closing costs
$4,500
Reserves months
—
Total cash needed
—

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 40 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
10007 W Clair Dr Sun City, AZ 2.0 2.0 1373 $2,600 $1.89 36d 1 0.20mi
9920 N 97th Dr Unit B Peoria, AZ 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,450 $1.27 20d 1 0.23mi
10104 N 96th Dr Unit A Peoria, AZ 2.0 2.0 1072 $1,750 $1.63 10d 1 0.36mi
9626 W Mountain View Rd Unit A Peoria, AZ 2.0 2.0 1156 $1,500 $1.30 184d 1 0.41mi
9911 N 95th Dr Unit B Peoria, AZ 2.0 1.5 1072 $1,500 $1.40 94d 1 0.48mi
9603 W Purdue Ave Peoria, AZ 2.0 2.0 1829 $1,950 $1.07 7d 1 0.49mi
9715 W Carol Ave Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1322 $2,000 $1.51 94d 1 0.49mi
10316 N 94th Ln Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1352 $2,000 $1.48 165d 1 0.50mi
10225 N 94th Ln Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1548 $1,795 $1.16 10d 1 0.52mi
10225 N 94th Ln Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1548 $1,795 $1.16 63d 1 0.52mi
10225 N 94th Ln Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1548 $1,795 $1.16 13d 1 0.52mi
10022 W Lakeview Cir N Sun City, AZ 2.0 2.0 1575 $2,800 $1.78 165d 1 0.54mi
9426 W Monroe St Peoria, AZ 3.0 3.5 1405 $1,800 $1.28 157d 1 0.55mi
11275 N 99th Ave #158 Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1400 $1,395 $1.00 29d 1 0.57mi
9427 W Ironwood Dr Peoria, AZ 4.0 2.0 1591 $1,794 $1.13 45d 1 0.59mi
9427 W Ironwood Dr Peoria, AZ 4.0 2.0 1591 $1,994 $1.25 0d 1 0.59mi
9427 W Ironwood Dr Peoria, AZ 4.0 2.0 1591 $1,869 $1.17 115d 1 0.59mi
9340 W Gold Dust Ave Peoria, AZ 4.0 2.0 1657 $2,215 $1.34 0d 1 0.60mi
9185 N 98th Ave Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1580 $2,095 $1.33 10d 1 0.66mi
9820 W Sanna St Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1578 $1,990 $1.26 69d 1 0.66mi
10350 W Camden Ave Sun City, AZ 2.0 2.0 1413 $2,900 $2.05 85d 1 0.66mi
9543 W Sunnyslope Ln Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1322 $1,850 $1.40 63d 1 0.67mi
9323 W Ironwood Dr Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1306 $2,085 $1.60 184d 1 0.69mi
9323 W Ironwood Dr Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1306 $1,985 $1.52 164d 1 0.69mi
9096 N 97th Dr Peoria, AZ 4.0 2.0 2151 $2,195 $1.02 164d 1 0.69mi
9702 N 93rd Dr Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1445 $2,365 $1.64 119d 1 0.69mi
11275 N 99th Ave #99 Peoria, AZ 2.0 2.0 1162 $1,200 $1.03 55d 1 0.71mi
9247 W Brown St Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1522 $1,800 $1.18 101d 1 0.73mi
9247 W Brown St Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1522 $1,800 $1.18 102d 1 0.73mi
9247 W Brown St Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1522 $1,800 $1.18 135d 1 0.73mi
9311 W Carol Ave Peoria, AZ 4.0 2.5 2178 $2,195 $1.01 184d 1 0.81mi
9358 W Sanna St Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1319 $1,995 $1.51 130d 1 0.88mi
9358 W Sanna St Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1319 $1,995 $1.51 135d 1 0.88mi
9358 W Sanna St Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1319 $1,775 $1.35 9d 1 0.88mi
10188 W Puget Ave Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1460 $2,200 $1.51 90d 1 0.89mi
9625 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ 2.0–3.0 2.0 1692 $2,804 $1.66 0d 3 0.89mi
9310 W Sanna St Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1104 $1,755 $1.59 0d 1 0.94mi
9545 W Alice Ave Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 2144 $1,380 $0.64 102d 1 1.01mi
9630 W Reno View Dr Peoria, AZ 4.0 2.0 2057 $2,500 $1.22 135d 1 1.01mi
9259 W Caron Cir Peoria, AZ 4.0 2.0 1852 $2,700 $1.46 1d 1 1.04mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Directions: from the 101 go west on Peoria Ave, turn south onto 99th Ave; park entrance will be on the left.
HOA & community
Land lease of $980 monthlyNo association fees includedCommunity poolPickleball courtsCommunity spa (heated)Biking/walking pathsFitness center

Exterior

Parking
1 covered parking space1 open parking space1 carport space
Security
Gated community
Utilities
City waterPublic sewer
Home design
Manufactured/Mobile housingLeasehold ownership
Construction
Wood sidingOther construction materialsComposition roof
Exterior features
Heated spaWood fencingGravel/stone front yardSynthetic grass in backPrivate maintained road

Interior

Kitchen
RefrigeratorDishwasherDisposalKitchen island
Bedrooms
Possibly 3 bedrooms
Flooring
Vinyl flooring
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Heating presentHeat pumpCentral airCeiling fansENERGY STAR qualified equipmentProgrammable thermostat
Interior features
Eat-in kitchenKitchen islandPrimary bedroom with full bathDual-pane windows
Laundry & utility
Owner-listed building area source

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-11-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 188 DOM
  2. 2026-11-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 187 DOM
  3. 2026-11-06
    days on market $150,000 Active 186 DOM
  4. 2026-11-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 185 DOM
  5. 2026-11-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 184 DOM
  6. 2026-11-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 182 DOM
  7. 2026-11-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 181 DOM
  8. 2026-10-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 180 DOM
  9. 2026-10-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 179 DOM
  10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $150,000 Active 178 DOM
  11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $150,000 Active 177 DOM
  12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $150,000 Active 176 DOM
  13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $150,000 Active 175 DOM
  14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $150,000 Active 174 DOM
  15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $150,000 Active 173 DOM
  16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $150,000 Active 172 DOM
  17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $150,000 Active 171 DOM
  18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $150,000 Active 170 DOM
  19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $150,000 Active 169 DOM
  20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $150,000 Active 168 DOM
  21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $150,000 Active 167 DOM
  22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $150,000 Active 166 DOM
  23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $150,000 Active 165 DOM
  24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $150,000 Active 164 DOM
  25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $150,000 Active 163 DOM
  26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $150,000 Active 162 DOM
  27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $150,000 Active 161 DOM
  28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $150,000 Active 160 DOM
  29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $150,000 Active 159 DOM
  30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $150,000 Active 158 DOM
  31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 157 DOM
  32. 2026-10-08
    price $150,000 Active 156 DOM
  33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 156 DOM
  34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $155,000 Active 155 DOM
  35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 154 DOM
  36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $155,000 Active 153 DOM
  37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $155,000 Active 152 DOM
  38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 151 DOM
  39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 150 DOM
  40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 149 DOM
  41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $155,000 Active 148 DOM
  42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $155,000 Active 147 DOM
  43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $155,000 Active 146 DOM
  44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $155,000 Active 145 DOM
  45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $155,000 Active 144 DOM
  46. 2026-09-24
    pricedays on market $155,000 Active 143 DOM
  47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $160,000 Active 142 DOM
  48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $160,000 Active 141 DOM
  49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $160,000 Active 140 DOM
  50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $160,000 Active 139 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 14% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$18,984
− Mortgage interest
−$8,402
− Property taxes
−$2,250
− Insurance
−$750
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,519
− Management
−$1,519
− Depreciation
−$4,364
Taxable income
$180
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
−$43
After-tax cash flow
$2,515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,875–$23,625 screening

This 2024-built manufactured home in a 55+ gated community is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It has a fenced yard and a covered patio, making it a great option for those looking for a move-in-ready home.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers ↑
  • Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers ↑
  • Resale Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can make the bathroom more appealing to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Sun Valley Elementary School F AZ #623/1,109 Nat'l #29,575/41,679 High Raymond S. Kellis F AZ #114/381 Nat'l #10,882/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Peoria Unified School District (4237)
NCES district ID
0406250
Math proficiency
36% ▼ -14.00%
Reading proficiency
42% ▼ -8.00%
Median HH income
$60,171
Composite
34.62/100
National rank
#5152
State rank
#64 of 249 in AZ
B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Peoria

Score
76/100
State rank
#14
US rank
#3603

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A Cost of living C- Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Peoria, AZ
County
Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
City population
206,687
Metro
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
Population (ZIP)
60,918
Household income
$67,380
Rent vs Own
33.5% rent · 66.5% own
Severe rent burden
16% of renters

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
4,979,203 people
By 2030
5,378,229 · +8.0%
By 2040
6,156,598 · +23.6%
By 2050
6,872,376 · +38.0%
By 2075
8,401,270 · +68.7%
By 2100
9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
Race & ethnicity
White 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 14% Black 5% Asian 4% Native American 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 29%
Languages at home
76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
2008→2024 swing
+7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

Civics
—

Price history

+0.0% since first listed
2 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-05 Listed $160,000 ARMLS
  • 2026-04-17 Price Changed $160,000 ARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…