10201 N 99th Ave #104 · Peoria, AZ 85345

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · Manufactured · 45 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition $102/sqft · 32% below area Est $234k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ON LEASED LAND, This beautiful 2024-built manufactured home in a 55+ gated resort-style community! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a modern open layout with a fenced in yard and covered patio. Enjoy amenities including a pool and spa, pickleball courts, and a dog park, with a new recreation center coming May 2026.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2024

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $575 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.3% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AZ, #3,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, health & safety F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 333 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.40%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,616
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -31.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10701 N 99th Ave #61	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-1%)	14mo	$85,500	$55	65
10701 N 99 Ave #209	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-9%)	1mo	$83,000	$58	62
10701 N 99th Ave #22	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,624 (+3%)	7mo	$55,000	$34	60
10701 N 99th Ave #186	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-2%)	18mo	$71,500	$47	59
10701 N 99th Ave Lot 35	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+3%)	18mo	$111,000	$69	59
11275 N 99th Ave #131	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,746 (+11%)	2mo	$270,000	$155	52
11275 N 99th Ave #65	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,696 (+8%)	3mo	$265,000	$156	51
11275 N 99th Ave #141	0.68mi	3/1.8	1,570 (-0%)	24mo	$325,000	$207	47
11275 N 99th Ave #61	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-11%)	3mo	$268,500	$192	46
11275 N 99th Ave #119	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-12%)	4mo	$265,000	$190	45
11275 N 99th Ave #59	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,681 (+7%)	22mo	$306,000	$182	37
11275 N 99th Ave #31	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-15%)	15mo	$281,000	$209	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,757
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $32,839
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85345

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 333
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,128 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10104 N 96th Dr Unit A Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,750	$1.63	24d	1	0.36mi
9626 W Mountain View Rd Unit A Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,500	$1.30	43d	1	0.41mi
10316 N 94th Ln Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1352	$2,000	$1.48	24d	1	0.50mi
10022 W Lakeview Cir N Sun City, AZ	2.0	2.0	1575	$2,800	$1.78	24d	1	0.54mi
9426 W Monroe St Peoria, AZ	3.0	3.5	1405	$1,800	$1.28	16d	1	0.55mi
9427 W Ironwood Dr Peoria, AZ	4.0	2.0	1591	$1,944	$1.22	10d	1	0.59mi
10350 W Camden Ave Sun City, AZ	2.0	2.0	1413	$2,850	$2.02	24d	1	0.66mi
9323 W Ironwood Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1306	$2,085	$1.60	43d	1	0.69mi
9323 W Ironwood Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,985	$1.52	23d	1	0.69mi
9096 N 97th Dr Peoria, AZ	4.0	2.0	2151	$2,195	$1.02	23d	1	0.69mi
9311 W Carol Ave Peoria, AZ	4.0	2.5	2178	$2,195	$1.01	43d	1	0.81mi
9625 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1485	$2,674	$1.80	5d	7	0.89mi
9221 W Gary Rd Peoria, AZ	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	43d	1	1.06mi
10101 N 91st Ave #109 Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.5	1161	$1,395	$1.20	2d	1	1.06mi
9002 W Malapai Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1270	$2,040	$1.61	20d	1	1.10mi
10421 W Puget Ave Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,750	$1.23	24d	1	1.13mi
8930 W Monroe St Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,899	$1.46	43d	2	1.15mi
8930 W Monroe St Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,099	$1.61	23d	1	1.15mi
11411 N 91st Ave Unit 134 Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	43d	1	1.27mi
8940 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,600	$1.11	43d	1	1.30mi
8834 W Purdue Ave Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,800	$1.36	3d	1	1.30mi
10729 W Sun City Blvd Sun City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1697	$3,500	$2.06	24d	1	1.35mi
9607 N 88th Dr Peoria, AZ	4.0	2.0	1541	$1,989	$1.29	20d	1	1.36mi
8821 W Sahuaro Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,595	$1.49	2d	1	1.38mi
8821 W Sahuaro Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,595	$1.49	24d	1	1.38mi
10846 N 109th Ave Sun City, AZ	3.0	2.0	1623	$3,500	$2.16	12d	1	1.38mi
10221 N 87th Ln Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,059	$1.67	43d	1	1.39mi
9514 W El Caminito Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,850	$1.34	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    listed $160,000 Active 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    ON LEASED LAND, This beautiful 2024-built manufactured home in a 55+ gated resort-style community! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a modern open layout with a fenced in yard and covered patio. Enjoy amenities including a pool and spa, pickleball courts, and a dog park, with a new recreation center coming May 2026.

16. 2026-04-17
    price $160,000 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    ON LEASED LAND, This beautiful 2024-built manufactured home in a 55+ gated resort-style community! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a modern open layout with a fenced in yard and covered patio. Enjoy amenities including a pool and spa, pickleball courts, and a dog park, with a new recreation center coming May 2026.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,043
• − Management: −$2,043
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $4,630
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,111
• After-tax cash flow: $5,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2024-built manufactured home in a 55+ gated community is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It has a fenced yard and a covered patio, making it a great option for those looking for a move-in-ready home.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers
• Resale Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can make the bathroom more appealing to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can make the bathroom more appealing to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peoria Unified School District (4237)
• NCES district ID: 0406250
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,171
• Composite: 34.62/100
• National rank: #5152
• State rank: #64 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Peoria

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #3603

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A Cost of living C- Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Peoria, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 206,687
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 60,918
• Household income: $67,380
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1879.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 14% Black 5% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.77%
• Current HPI: 328.1069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.62%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $160,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $160,000 ARMLS