CashFlowRE
Sign in Sign up
10201 N 99th Ave #104
C- Composite 53.21
Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +16.7/30.0
  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • DSCR +5.4/10.0
  • 1% rule +5.0/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.8/5.0
  • Schools +2.8/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.7/5.0
  • Appreciation +2.5/10.0
  • Manufactured-home adj. -4.6

$160,000

10201 N 99th Ave #104 · Peoria, AZ 85345
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · Manufactured · 96 Days on market
Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 2024 Good condition $102/sqft · 38% below area Est $257k · 38% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

ON LEASED LAND, This beautiful 2024-built manufactured home in a 55+ gated resort-style community! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a modern open layout with a fenced in yard and covered patio. Enjoy amenities including a pool and spa, pickleball courts, and a dog park, with a new recreation center coming May 2026.

Key facts

  • 2 parking spots
  • Community pool
  • Built 2024

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (0.7% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.3% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AZ, #3,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, health & safety F.
  • Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Sun Valley Elementary School (math 23% / reading 29%, grade F, #623 of 1,109 statewide, top 57%, 806 students, 65% FRL); Raymond S. Kellis (math 27% / reading 34%, grade F, #114 of 381 statewide, top 30%, 1,817 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 35% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents flat; 410 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $145,600 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.99%
Cap rate
7.41%
Cash-on-cash
4.00%
DSCR
1.18
GRM
8.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$257,000
List price
$160,000
Delta
-37.74%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
13 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
10701 N 99th Ave #186 0.46mi 3/2.0 1,440 (-9%) 0mo $50,000 $35 64
10701 N 99th Ave #61 0.46mi 3/2.0 1,560 (-1%) 16mo $85,500 $55 64
10701 N 99 Ave #209 0.49mi 3/2.0 1,440 (-9%) 3mo $83,000 $58 60
10701 N 99th Ave #22 0.51mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,624 (+3%) 8mo $55,000 $34 59
10701 N 99th Ave #51 0.46mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,440 (-9%) 1mo $23,000 $16 58
10701 N 99th Ave #186 0.46mi 3/2.0 1,536 (-2%) 20mo $71,500 $47 58
10701 N 99th Ave Lot 35 0.46mi 3/2.0 1,620 (+3%) 19mo $111,000 $69 58
11275 N 99th Ave #131 0.60mi 3/2.0 1,746 (+11%) 3mo $270,000 $155 51
11275 N 99th Ave #65 0.71mi 3/2.0 1,696 (+8%) 5mo $265,000 $156 50
11275 N 99th Ave #61 0.73mi 3/2.0 1,402 (-11%) 4mo $268,500 $192 44
11275 N 99th Ave #119 0.69mi 3/2.0 1,392 (-12%) 6mo $265,000 $190 44
11275 N 99th Ave #31 0.67mi 3/2.0 1,345 (-15%) 17mo $281,000 $209 30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-12.7%
Equity multiple
0.55×
Total profit
$-20,106
Equity at exit
$23,857
10-year hold
IRR
-7.8%
Equity multiple
0.56×
Total profit
$-19,700
Equity at exit
$13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Arizona
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
18 active · 4 under contract
Months of supply
13.5 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$87,250 ($61/sqft)
Median days on market
91 d
This list price
78% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+169.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85345

Home prices YoY
-19.8%
Rents YoY
0.6%
Active inventory
410
Price-to-rent
8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,589 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$839
Tax est. 1.5%
$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
Insurance
$67
HOA
$0
Lot rent leased land?
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$334
Net cashflow
$149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400
Max offer price $160,000
Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $260 -5% $205 +0% $149 +5% $94 +10% $39
Rent -10% $24 -5% $87 +0% $149 +5% $212 +10% $275
Rate -1.0pp $230 -0.5pp $190 base $149 +0.5pp $108 +1.0pp $66

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$40,000
Closing costs
$4,800
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 40 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
10007 W Clair Dr Sun City, AZ 2.0 2.0 1373 $2,750 $2.00 10d 1 0.20mi
9920 N 97th Dr Unit B Peoria, AZ 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,500 $1.31 28d 1 0.23mi
9920 N 97th Dr Unit B Peoria, AZ 2.0 2.0 1144 $1,500 $1.31 2d 1 0.23mi
10104 N 96th Dr Unit A Peoria, AZ 2.0 2.0 1072 $1,750 $1.63 73d 1 0.36mi
9626 W Mountain View Rd Unit A Peoria, AZ 2.0 2.0 1156 $1,500 $1.30 93d 1 0.41mi
9911 N 95th Dr Unit B Peoria, AZ 2.0 1.5 1072 $1,500 $1.40 2d 1 0.48mi
9715 W Carol Ave Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1322 $2,000 $1.51 2d 1 0.49mi
10316 N 94th Ln Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1352 $2,000 $1.48 73d 1 0.50mi
10022 W Lakeview Cir N Sun City, AZ 2.0 2.0 1575 $2,800 $1.78 73d 1 0.54mi
9426 W Monroe St Peoria, AZ 3.0 3.5 1405 $1,800 $1.28 66d 1 0.55mi
9427 W Ironwood Dr Peoria, AZ 4.0 2.0 1591 $1,994 $1.25 2d 1 0.59mi
9427 W Ironwood Dr Peoria, AZ 4.0 2.0 1591 $1,869 $1.17 23d 1 0.59mi
9820 W Sanna St Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1578 $2,190 $1.39 14d 1 0.66mi
10350 W Camden Ave Sun City, AZ 2.0 2.0 1413 $2,850 $2.02 73d 1 0.66mi
9323 W Ironwood Dr Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1306 $2,085 $1.60 93d 1 0.69mi
9323 W Ironwood Dr Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1306 $1,985 $1.52 73d 1 0.69mi
9096 N 97th Dr Peoria, AZ 4.0 2.0 2151 $2,195 $1.02 73d 1 0.69mi
9702 N 93rd Dr Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1445 $2,365 $1.64 28d 1 0.69mi
9247 W Brown St Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1522 $1,800 $1.18 9d 1 0.73mi
9247 W Brown St Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1522 $1,800 $1.18 43d 1 0.73mi
9247 W Brown St Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1522 $1,800 $1.18 10d 1 0.73mi
9311 W Carol Ave Peoria, AZ 4.0 2.5 2178 $2,195 $1.01 93d 1 0.81mi
9358 W Sanna St Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1319 $1,995 $1.51 39d 1 0.88mi
9358 W Sanna St Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1319 $1,995 $1.51 43d 1 0.88mi
9358 W Sanna St Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1319 $1,895 $1.44 21d 1 0.88mi
9625 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ 1.0–3.0 1.0–3.0 1485 $2,799 $1.88 0d 8 0.89mi
9545 W Alice Ave Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 2144 $1,380 $0.64 10d 1 1.01mi
9630 W Reno View Dr Peoria, AZ 4.0 2.0 2057 $2,500 $1.22 43d 1 1.01mi
9221 W Gary Rd Peoria, AZ 4.0 1.0 1300 $2,000 $1.54 93d 1 1.06mi
10101 N 91st Ave #109 Peoria, AZ 2.0 2.5 1161 $1,300 $1.12 39d 1 1.06mi
9002 W Malapai Dr Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1270 $2,040 $1.61 69d 1 1.10mi
10421 W Puget Ave Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1424 $1,750 $1.23 73d 1 1.13mi
8930 W Monroe St Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1300 $1,899 $1.46 93d 2 1.15mi
8930 W Monroe St Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1300 $1,899 $1.46 40d 1 1.15mi
11411 N 91st Ave Unit 134 Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1310 $1,599 $1.22 93d 1 1.27mi
8940 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ 2.0 2.0 1446 $1,600 $1.11 93d 1 1.30mi
8834 W Purdue Ave Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1319 $1,800 $1.36 52d 1 1.30mi
11309 N 89th Dr Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.5 1663 $2,100 $1.26 41d 1 1.33mi
11309 N 89th Dr Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.5 1663 $2,100 $1.26 40d 1 1.33mi
9538 W Echo Ln Peoria, AZ 3.0 2.0 1104 $1,845 $1.67 15d 1 1.35mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Directions: from the 101 go west on Peoria Ave, turn south onto 99th Ave; park entrance will be on the left.
HOA & community
Land lease of $980 monthlyNo association fees includedCommunity poolPickleball courtsCommunity spa (heated)Biking/walking pathsFitness center

Exterior

Parking
1 covered parking space1 open parking space1 carport space
Security
Gated community
Utilities
City waterPublic sewer
Home design
Manufactured/Mobile housingLeasehold ownership
Construction
Wood sidingOther construction materialsComposition roof
Exterior features
Heated spaWood fencingGravel/stone front yardSynthetic grass in backPrivate maintained road

Interior

Kitchen
RefrigeratorDishwasherDisposalKitchen island
Bedrooms
Possibly 3 bedrooms
Flooring
Vinyl flooring
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Heating presentHeat pumpCentral airCeiling fansENERGY STAR qualified equipmentProgrammable thermostat
Interior features
Eat-in kitchenKitchen islandPrimary bedroom with full bathDual-pane windows
Laundry & utility
Owner-listed building area source

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 96 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $160,000 Active 94 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 93 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 92 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 91 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 88 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 86 DOM
  8. 2026-07-28
    days on market $160,000 Active 85 DOM
  9. 2026-07-26
    days on market $160,000 Active 83 DOM
  10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $160,000 Active 81 DOM
  11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $160,000 Active 80 DOM
  12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $160,000 Active 79 DOM
  13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $160,000 Active 78 DOM
  14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $160,000 Active 77 DOM
  15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $160,000 Active 75 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $160,000 Active 74 DOM
  17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $160,000 Active 73 DOM
  18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $160,000 Active 72 DOM
  19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $160,000 Active 71 DOM
  20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $160,000 Active 70 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $160,000 Active 69 DOM
  22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $160,000 Active 68 DOM
  23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $160,000 Active 67 DOM
  24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $160,000 Active 66 DOM
  25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 64 DOM
  26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $160,000 Active 63 DOM
  27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $160,000 Active 62 DOM
  28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 61 DOM
  29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 60 DOM
  30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 59 DOM
  31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 58 DOM
  32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 57 DOM
  33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $160,000 Active 56 DOM
  34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $160,000 Active 55 DOM
  35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $160,000 Active 54 DOM
  36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $160,000 Active 53 DOM
  37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $160,000 Active 51 DOM
  38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $160,000 Active 49 DOM
  39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $160,000 Active 48 DOM
  40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $160,000 Active 45 DOM
  41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $160,000 Active 44 DOM
  42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $160,000 Active 43 DOM
  43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $160,000 Active 42 DOM
  44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $160,000 Active 40 DOM
  45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $160,000 Active 39 DOM
  46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $160,000 Active 36 DOM
  47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 35 DOM
  48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 34 DOM
  49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 31 DOM
  50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 30 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 14% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$19,065
− Mortgage interest
−$8,962
− Property taxes
−$2,400
− Insurance
−$800
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,525
− Management
−$1,525
− Depreciation
−$4,655
Taxable loss
−$803
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$193
After-tax cash flow
$1,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,875–$23,625 screening

This 2024-built manufactured home in a 55+ gated community is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It has a fenced yard and a covered patio, making it a great option for those looking for a move-in-ready home.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers
  • Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers
  • Resale Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can make the bathroom more appealing to potential buyers

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Sun Valley Elementary School F AZ #623/1,109 Nat'l #29,575/41,679 High Raymond S. Kellis F AZ #114/381 Nat'l #10,882/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Peoria Unified School District (4237)
NCES district ID
0406250
Math proficiency
36% ▼ -14.00%
Reading proficiency
42% ▼ -8.00%
Median HH income
$60,171
Composite
34.62/100
National rank
#5152
State rank
#64 of 249 in AZ
B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Peoria

Score
76/100
State rank
#14
US rank
#3603

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A Cost of living C- Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Peoria, AZ
County
Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
City population
206,687
Metro
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
Population (ZIP)
60,918
Household income
$67,380
Rent vs Own
33.5% rent · 66.5% own
Severe rent burden
16% of renters

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
4,979,203 people
By 2030
5,378,229 · +8.0%
By 2040
6,156,598 · +23.6%
By 2050
6,872,376 · +38.0%
By 2075
8,401,270 · +68.7%
By 2100
9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
Race & ethnicity
White 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 14% Black 5% Asian 4% Native American 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 29%
Common ancestry
Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
Foreign-born
13% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home
76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
2008→2024 swing
+7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+0.0% since first listed
2 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-05 Listed $160,000 ARMLS
  • 2026-04-17 Price Changed $160,000 ARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…