1279 Guelbreth Ln #207

Creve Coeur, MO 63146

$129,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,284/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$551
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-363/mo
• Annual: $-4,356/yr
• Cap rate: 2.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.98%
• DSCR: 0.47
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $66k (49.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (1.1% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (49.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#16 in MO, #1,519 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Pattonville R-III (suburban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #147 of 324 in MO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow Brook Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 470 students, 40% FRL); Pattonville Sr. High (math 33% / reading 64%, grade D, #147 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 1,893 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $130k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?