1279 Guelbreth Ln #207 · Creve Coeur, MO 63146

$129,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Condo public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1970 $124/sqft · 6% below area Est $138k · 6% under $551/mo HOA · 43% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo. Perfectly situated near the JCC, which offers a full fitness center, aquatics, and community programming. Key amenities include a full fitness center, indoor/outdoor pools, 150+ weekly group exercise classes (Yoga, Zumba, Spin), a Pilates studio, sauna/steam rooms, youth sports, early childhood education, and summer day camps! Just minutes from everything West County and Creve Coeur have to offer. Step inside to find brand-new flooring throughout and a completely renovated and gorgeous kitchen featuring all-new stainless steel appliances, including a refrigerator, microwave, electric glass-top range/stove, and dishwasher. The

Key facts

• $551 HOA
• Built 1970
• Listed 50 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: The Doral Manor Association; Monthly HOA fee; HOA amenities: elevator(s), game room, laundry, meeting room, parking, party room; HOA covers grounds maintenance, sewer, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Community parking (association provides parking)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available
• Home design: Residential condominium; One level
• Construction: Brick and shingle siding exterior
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Stainless steel appliances; Fire alarm; Lighting; Patio; Storage; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $66k (49.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $66k (49.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#16 in MO, #1,519 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Pattonville R-III (suburban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #147 of 324 in MO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow Brook Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 470 students, 40% FRL); Pattonville Sr. High (math 33% / reading 64%, grade D, #147 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 1,893 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $130k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,777 (49.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.98%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,895
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -5.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $44,179
• Equity at exit: $117,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.91×
• Total profit: $142,168
• Equity at exit: $252,367

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63146

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,284 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,093/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$551
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,744

Max offer price $65,777

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1434 Willow Brook Cove Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	910	$1,395	$1.53	43d	1	0.26mi
10304 Oxford Hill Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,089	$1.18	2d	47	0.27mi
1380 Willow Brook Cove Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	910	$1,550	$1.70	14d	1	0.28mi
10368 Forest Brook Ln Unit F Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,350	$1.28	43d	1	0.32mi
10364 Forest Brook Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,400	$1.33	43d	1	0.33mi
10900 Oak Forest Pkwy Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,025	$1.28	3d	6	0.46mi
10427 Briarbend Dr #8 Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	858	$1,350	$1.57	23d	1	0.49mi
9814 Greenery Ln Unit D Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	875	$1,250	$1.43	23d	1	0.91mi
9814 Greenery Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,475	$1.64	43d	1	0.91mi
9882 Greenery Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	43d	1	0.91mi
9826 Greenery Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	43d	1	0.91mi
1836 Morven Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1496	$1,670	$1.12	14d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $551 · $6,612/yr
• Likely covers: electricpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $129,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    price $135,000 1522-char remark
15. 2026-04-29
    listed $140,000 Active 1522-char remark
16. 2026-04-27
    historical $140,000 1522-char remark
17. 2000-10-19
    soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,093 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,260 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$167/yr (+$14/mo · 15.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,409
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,093
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,233
• − Management: −$1,233
• − HOA: −$6,612
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$6,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,552
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pattonville R-III
• NCES district ID: 2923700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,786
• Composite: 33.69/100
• National rank: #5383
• State rank: #147 of 324 in MO

Livability — Creve Coeur

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1519

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 21,924
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,678
• Household income: $84,756
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1156.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Asian 17% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.10%
• Current HPI: 711.49
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+88.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $129,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $135,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $140,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Coming Soon $140,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,093 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.