1451 Nottaway Dr

Wheeling, WV 20003

$199,900C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Active · 167 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,014/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $1,102/mo
• Annual: $13,229/yr
• Cap rate: 13.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.83%
• DSCR: 2.10
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#74 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ohio County Schools (urban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #5 of 55 in WV (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Steenrod Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #29 of 377 statewide, top 10%, 278 students, 0% FRL); Triadelphia Middle School (math 34% / reading 56%, grade D, #9 of 109 statewide, top 7%, 390 students, 0% FRL); Wheeling Park High School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #14 of 110 statewide, top 16%, 1,490 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 44% district-wide (44 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.9%/yr); 6 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2 units permitted in Ohio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ohio County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 4.3% in Wheeling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.