1451 Nottaway Dr · Wheeling, WV 20003

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 167 Days on market

Built 1954 3,920 sqft lot $135/sqft · 19% above area Est $168k · 19% over ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated 3-bedroom home with a spacious 1st floor master featuring built-in bookshelves, walkout to enclosed patio & remodeled bath. Freshly painted exterior, epoxy basement floors, new HVAC, hot water tank & updated breaker box. Upstairs boasts a loft & extra bedroom. Former pool area ready for new install. Move-in ready in a desirable location!

Key facts

• New hvac
• 1st floor master
• Built-in bookshelves

Tags

• 1ST FLOOR MASTER
• BUILT-IN BOOKSHELVES
• ENCLOSED PATIO
• REMODELED BATH
• EPOXY BASEMENT FLOORS
• NEW HVAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 4.3% in Wheeling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#74 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ohio County Schools (urban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #5 of 55 in WV (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Steenrod Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #29 of 377 statewide, top 10%, 278 students, 0% FRL); Triadelphia Middle School (math 34% / reading 56%, grade D, #9 of 109 statewide, top 7%, 390 students, 0% FRL); Wheeling Park High School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #14 of 110 statewide, top 16%, 1,490 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 44% district-wide (44 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.9%/yr); 6 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2 units permitted in Ohio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ohio County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.83%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,640
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: 19.24%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38 Fairfax Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-1%)	9mo	$150,000	$103	71
1322 Valley View Ave	0.32mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,392 (-6%)	8mo	$135,000	$97	62
1307 Valley View Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,421 (-4%)	14mo	$119,900	$84	60
7 Arlington Dr	0.35mi	2/2.5	1,612 (+9%)	3mo	$215,000	$133	60
25 Oak Park Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,500 (+2%)	11mo	$260,000	$173	58
16 Greenwood Ave	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,663 (+13%)	9mo	$205,000	$123	57
48 Biltmore Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (-5%)	13mo	$186,000	$133	57
46 Arcadia Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,396 (-5%)	9mo	$185,000	$133	54
36 Fairfax Ave	0.22mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,650 (+12%)	9mo	$230,000	$139	52
1319 Valley View Ave	0.33mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,256 (-15%)	11mo	$135,000	$107	44
227 Washington Ave	0.48mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,663 (+13%)	8mo	$240,000	$144	43
69 Lynwood Ave	0.71mi	2/1.5	1,298 (-12%)	10mo	$215,000	$166	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $28,970
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $81,427
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20003

• Rents YoY: -4.9%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,014 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,100/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $1,102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,619

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,216	-5% $1,159	+0% $1,102	+5% $1,046	+10% $989
Rent	-10% $864	-5% $983	+0% $1,102	+5% $1,221	+10% $1,341
Rate	-1.0pp $1,203	-0.5pp $1,153	base $1,102	+0.5pp $1,051	+1.0pp $998

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,900 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 155 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 147 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 146 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 145 DOM
18. 2026-03-24
    status Active 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Beautifully updated 3-bedroom home with a spacious 1st floor master featuring built-in bookshelves, walkout to enclosed patio & remodeled bath. Freshly painted exterior, epoxy basement floors, new HVAC, hot water tank & updated breaker box. Upstairs boasts a loft & extra bedroom. Former pool area ready for new install. Move-in ready in a desirable location!

19. 2026-02-17
    status Pending 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Beautifully updated 3-bedroom home with a spacious 1st floor master featuring built-in bookshelves, walkout to enclosed patio & remodeled bath. Freshly painted exterior, epoxy basement floors, new HVAC, hot water tank & updated breaker box. Upstairs boasts a loft & extra bedroom. Former pool area ready for new install. Move-in ready in a desirable location!

20. 2026-01-13
    price $199,900 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Beautifully updated 3-bedroom home with a spacious 1st floor master featuring built-in bookshelves, walkout to enclosed patio & remodeled bath. Freshly painted exterior, epoxy basement floors, new HVAC, hot water tank & updated breaker box. Upstairs boasts a loft & extra bedroom. Former pool area ready for new install. Move-in ready in a desirable location!

21. 2025-12-28
    price $210,000 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Beautifully updated 3-bedroom home with a spacious 1st floor master featuring built-in bookshelves, walkout to enclosed patio & remodeled bath. Freshly painted exterior, epoxy basement floors, new HVAC, hot water tank & updated breaker box. Upstairs boasts a loft & extra bedroom. Former pool area ready for new install. Move-in ready in a desirable location!

22. 2025-11-30
    listed $225,000 Active 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    Beautifully updated 3-bedroom home with a spacious 1st floor master featuring built-in bookshelves, walkout to enclosed patio & remodeled bath. Freshly painted exterior, epoxy basement floors, new HVAC, hot water tank & updated breaker box. Upstairs boasts a loft & extra bedroom. Former pool area ready for new install. Move-in ready in a desirable location!

23. 2025-10-25
    price $225,000
24. 2025-09-26
    price $269,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,100 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,179 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$79/yr (+$7/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,100
• − Insurance: −$1,666
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,894
• − Management: −$2,894
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $10,604
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,545
• After-tax cash flow: $10,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ohio County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5401050
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,572
• Composite: 34.88/100
• National rank: #5085
• State rank: #5 of 55 in WV

Livability — Wheeling

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #8950

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wheeling, WV
• County: District of Columbia
• City population: 39,982
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 37,482
• Household income: $159,846
• Rent vs Own: 63.0% rent · 37.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1469.0

Population outlook (Ohio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,604 people
• By 2030: 39,150 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 36,039 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 33,582 · -17.3%
• By 2075: 28,662 · -29.4%
• By 2100: 22,963 · -43.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ohio

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.0) · D 36.0% · R 62.0% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.3pp toward R · 2008: -10.8pp · 2024: -26.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.0 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+22.5 2008: R+10.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -783.88%
• Current HPI: 362.7496
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.88%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-25.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Relisted — WBOR
• 2026-02-17 Pending — WBOR
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $199,900 WBOR
• 2025-12-28 Price Changed $210,000 WBOR
• 2025-11-30 Listed $225,000 WBOR
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $225,000 WBOR
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $269,500 WBOR

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,100 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.