4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
— sqft ·
Built 1900
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 16 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,373/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$577
Tax + insurance
−$256
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$498
Net cashflow
$1,041/mo
Annual
$12,496/yr
Cap rate
17.65%
Cash-on-cash
40.57%
DSCR
2.81
1% rule
2.16%
Cash to close
$30,800
Investor read
This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $110k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $521/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: West Middle School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #627 of 665 statewide, top 95%, 849 students, 0% FRL); Auburn High School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #210 of 693 statewide, top 30%, 1,936 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
14 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $82k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,373/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 1402% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-VXWT166PJM657G
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29