4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,036 sqft ·
Built 2025
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 12 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,279/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,495
Tax + insurance
−$475
HOA
−$77
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$478
Net cashflow
$-247/mo
Annual
$-2,958/yr
Cap rate
5.25%
Cash-on-cash
-3.71%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$79,800
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (12.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (20.1% below list).
Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $228k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Hemphill El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 577 students, 71% FRL); D J Red Simon Middle (math 16% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 733 students, 78% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 43% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hays CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.4%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-VY1XV81MB35H5T
· Data 22 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29