2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
775 sqft ·
Built —
· Condo
· Active
· 14 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,082/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,301
Tax + insurance
−$413
HOA
−$1,276
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$647
Net cashflow
$-555/mo
Annual
$-6,657/yr
Cap rate
3.61%
Cash-on-cash
-9.59%
DSCR
0.57
1% rule
1.24%
Cash to close
$69,440
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $248k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-555 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (32.4% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $248k).
Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $168k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#119 in NJ, #3,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
West New York Board Of Education (suburban): math 10% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #420 of 472 in NJ (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Public School Number Two (math 11% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,012 of 1,303 statewide, top 79%, 595 students, 76% FRL); West New York Middle School (math 8% / reading 41%, grade F, #365 of 431 statewide, top 86%, 1,096 students, 87% FRL); Memorial High School (math 15% / reading 43%, grade F, #298 of 399 statewide, top 75%, 2,251 students, 80% FRL).
Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $195k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 1.9% in West New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,082/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-VY1Y2V2B71FDKZ
· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29