15569 Stevens Lake Rd

Alvin, WI 54542

$119,900D

2 bd · None ba · 670 sqft · Built 1994 · Other · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $827/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $-70/mo
• Annual: $-836/yr
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath other listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-836/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $108k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (31.0% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $83k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (8.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandon School District (rural): math 26% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #307 of 342 in WI (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Crandon Elementary (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #783 of 1,041 statewide, top 79%, 403 students, 34% FRL); Crandon Middle (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #232 of 383 statewide, top 64%, 187 students, 41% FRL); Crandon High (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #414 of 483 statewide, top 87%, 242 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Forest County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Forest County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $120k implies a 253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (8.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.