15569 Stevens Lake Rd · Alvin, WI 54542

$119,900

2 bd · None ba · 670 sqft · Other · 26 Days on market

Built 1994 0.86 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the Northwoods with this charming cabin retreat just steps from Stevens Lake and the boat landing ! Nestled on just under an acre, this well-kept, open-concept 2-bedroom cabin is priced to sell and ready to enjoy. The layout flows seamlessly from the living area to the kitchen, and the enclosed porch is the perfect spot to wind down after a day on the water. A Mitsubishi mini-split keeps you comfortable year-round, delivering efficient heating and cooling no matter the season. Whether you're casting a line at the lake, hitting the trails on your ATV, UTV, or snowmobile, or exploring the woods on foot, this property puts it all at your doorstep. Two outdoor sheds offer generous storage — both wired with electricity — ideal for gear, toys, and everything the Northwoods lifestyle demands. A bonus outdoor shower adds a fun, functional touch after a muddy adventure. Hunters will love the location and the natural surroundings that make this an ideal retreat come fall. And when the sun goes down? Step outside and take in some of the most breathtaking night skies in Wisconsin — Northern Lights included. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, a seasonal escape, or a year-round hunting and recreation retreat, this property delivers the full Northwoods experience at a price that's hard to beat. Come see it before it's gone!

Key facts

• Enclosed porch
• Outdoor shower
• 0.86 acre lot

Tags

• MITSUBISHI MINI-SPLIT
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• ELECTRICITY-WIRED SHEDS
• OUTDOOR SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 0.86 acre lot (about 0.86 acres); Zoned residential

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; No waste disposal system
• Home design: Single-family home; One-story; Construction completed
• Construction: Approximately 670 finished above-grade square feet; No finished below-grade square footage
• Exterior features: Deck; Cedar exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level, about 22 x 11; Microwave, Range/Oven, Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main-level primary bedroom, about 9 x 14; Main-level second bedroom, about 9 x 8
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat; Wall A/C / wall sleeve air conditioning
• Interior features: Three-season room (unfinished); Crawl space and poured concrete basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-836/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $108k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (31.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $83k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandon School District (rural): math 26% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #307 of 342 in WI (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Crandon Elementary (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #783 of 1,041 statewide, top 79%, 403 students, 34% FRL); Crandon Middle (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #232 of 383 statewide, top 64%, 187 students, 41% FRL); Crandon High (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #414 of 483 statewide, top 87%, 242 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Forest County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (8.9% local appreciation)).
• Forest County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $120k implies a 253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $82,709 (31.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $52,009
• Equity at exit: $98,650

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.61×
• Total profit: $154,799
• Equity at exit: $203,505

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 54542

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $827 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $532/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $915

Max offer price $107,597

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2	-5% $-36	+0% $-70	+5% $-104	+10% $-138
Rent	-10% $-135	-5% $-102	+0% $-70	+5% $-37	+10% $-4
Rate	-1.0pp $-9	-0.5pp $-39	base $-70	+0.5pp $-101	+1.0pp $-132

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $119,900 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-23
    listed $119,900 Active 1369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Escape to the Northwoods with this well-kept 2-bedroom cabin retreat just steps from Stevens Lake and the boat landing! Set on just under an acre, this open-concept getaway is priced to sell and move-in ready. A Mitsubishi mini-split provides efficient year-round heating and cooling. The enclosed porch is perfect for unwinding after a day of fishing, ATV/UTV riding, snowmobiling, or hiking. Two electricity-wired sheds offer plenty of gear storage, plus a fun outdoor shower for post-adventure rinse-offs. Hunters will love the prime location and natural surroundings. When night falls, enjoy stunning stargazing and the chance to catch the Northern Lights from your own backyard. Weekend escape or year-round recreation retreat — this one delivers the full Northwoods experience!

19. 2026-05-23
    listed $119,900 Active 1369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Escape to the Northwoods with this well-kept 2-bedroom cabin retreat just steps from Stevens Lake and the boat landing! Set on just under an acre, this open-concept getaway is priced to sell and move-in ready. A Mitsubishi mini-split provides efficient year-round heating and cooling. The enclosed porch is perfect for unwinding after a day of fishing, ATV/UTV riding, snowmobiling, or hiking. Two electricity-wired sheds offer plenty of gear storage, plus a fun outdoor shower for post-adventure rinse-offs. Hunters will love the prime location and natural surroundings. When night falls, enjoy stunning stargazing and the chance to catch the Northern Lights from your own backyard. Weekend escape or year-round recreation retreat — this one delivers the full Northwoods experience!

20. 2026-05-23
    listed $119,900 Active 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Escape to the Northwoods with this well-kept 2-bedroom cabin retreat just steps from Stevens Lake and the boat landing! Set on just under an acre, this open-concept getaway is priced to sell and move-in ready. A Mitsubishi mini-split provides efficient year-round heating and cooling. The enclosed porch is perfect for unwinding after a day of fishing, ATV/UTV riding, snowmobiling, or hiking. Two electricity-wired sheds offer plenty of gear storage, plus a fun outdoor shower for post-adventure rinse-offs. Hunters will love the prime location and natural surroundings. When night falls, enjoy stunning stargazing and the chance to catch the Northern Lights from your own backyard. Weekend escape or year-round recreation retreat — this one delivers the full Northwoods experience!

21. 2026-05-23
    listed $119,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Escape to the Northwoods with this well-kept 2-bedroom cabin retreat just steps from Stevens Lake and the boat landing! Set on just under an acre, this open-concept getaway is priced to sell and move-in ready. A Mitsubishi mini-split provides efficient year-round heating and cooling. The enclosed porch is perfect for unwinding after a day of fishing, ATV/UTV riding, snowmobiling, or hiking. Two electricity-wired sheds offer plenty of gear storage, plus a fun outdoor shower for post-adventure rinse-offs. Hunters will love the prime location and natural surroundings. When night falls, enjoy stunning stargazing and the chance to catch the Northern Lights from your own backyard. Weekend escape or year-round recreation retreat — this one delivers the full Northwoods experience!

22. 2018-08-28
    soldstatus $34,000
23. 2018-08-28
    soldstatus $34,000
24. 2017-07-07
    listed $38,000
25. 2017-07-07
    listed $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $532 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,375 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$843/yr (+$70/mo · 158.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$532
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$794
• − Management: −$794
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$2,999
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$720
• After-tax cash flow: $-116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandon School District
• NCES district ID: 5502910
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,247
• Composite: 22.69/100
• National rank: #8041
• State rank: #307 of 342 in WI

Livability — Alvin

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 615

Population outlook (Forest County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,449 people
• By 2030: 8,032 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 7,064 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 6,119 · -27.6%
• By 2075: 4,592 · -45.7%
• By 2100: 3,630 · -57.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 20%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 8% Iranian 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Forest

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.4) · D 33.0% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -48.5pp toward R · 2008: 15.2pp · 2024: -33.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.4 2020: R+30.9 2016: R+26.7 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.91%
• Current HPI: 184.9568
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

+215.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $119,900 RANW
• 2026-05-23 Listed $119,900 GNMLS
• 2026-05-23 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-23 Listed $119,900 UPAR
• 2018-08-28 Sold (MLS) $34,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-08-28 Sold (MLS) $34,000 UPAR
• 2017-07-07 Listed $38,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-07-07 Listed $38,000 UPAR

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $532 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.