1608 Tuscan Ridge Cir

Southlake, TX 76092

$1,090,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,644 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,826/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,716
• Tax + insurance: −$1,713
• HOA: −$122
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,853
• Net cashflow: $-579/mo
• Annual: $-6,948/yr
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.28%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $305,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.09M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-579 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $988k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $883k (19.0% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.07M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $883k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $33k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#107 in TX, #3,547 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Carroll ISD (suburban): math 84% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #1 of 826 in TX (top 0%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Grove El (math 75% / reading 79%, grade A, #55 of 4,322 statewide, top 1%, 651 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.3% in Southlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($250k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.