2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
700 sqft ·
Built 1963
· Manufactured
· Active
· 59 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,149/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$891
Tax + insurance
−$115
HOA
−$547
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$451
Net cashflow
$144/mo
Annual
$1,727/yr
Cap rate
7.31%
Cash-on-cash
3.63%
DSCR
1.16
1% rule
1.26%
Cash to close
$47,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#240 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
Centralia Elementary (suburban): math 59% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #213 of 1,400 in CA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 86 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.2% in Anaheim — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-VYP8RM0DXJRECT
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29