617 Oak Park #617

Boerne, TX 78006

$199,965C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · Built 1976 · Condo · Active · 234 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,902/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$145
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-25/mo
• Annual: $-294/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $55,990

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-294/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (4.9% below list).
• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#87 in TX, #3,046 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Boerne ISD (town): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #42 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 1119 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 517 units permitted in Kendall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kendall County population projected at +76% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.4% in Boerne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?