179 Bear Creek Rd

Northville, NY 12134

$115,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Pending · 201 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,683/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$239
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $487/mo
• Annual: $5,844/yr
• Cap rate: 11.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.15%
• DSCR: 1.81
• 1% rule: 1.46%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $487 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northville Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #500 of 755 in NY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northville Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 175 students, 55% FRL); Northville High School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,060 of 1,100 statewide, top 97%, 256 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hamilton County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.9% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.