179 Bear Creek Rd · Northville, NY 12134

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 201 Days on market

Built 1983 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Renovated and private! Recently renovated manufactured home surrounded by woods and privacy with low Hamilton County taxes in the Northville Central School District. This manufactured style dwelling is located on a dead-end dirt road 10 minutes from the Village of Northville and the Great Sacandaga Lake. Also, in close proximity to NYS land and the east branch of the Stony Creek! New kitchen, new bathroom, new exterior, new flooring, new walls, new ceilings and more! Two sources of heat. The owner is a New York State licensed real estate salesperson.

Key facts

• Low taxes
• Dead end road
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE WOODED LOCATION
• DEAD END ROAD
• LOW TAXES
• NORTHVILLE SCHOOL DISTRICT
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO NYS LAND
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO STONY CREEK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $487 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.9% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northville Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #500 of 755 in NY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northville Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 175 students, 55% FRL); Northville High School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,060 of 1,100 statewide, top 97%, 256 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hamilton County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.15%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.91×
• Total profit: $93,706
• Equity at exit: $103,601

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.82×
• Total profit: $251,665
• Equity at exit: $223,420

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12134

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,683 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,298/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $487

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,066

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-09
   price $115,000
3. 2025-10-20
   price $125,000
4. 2025-10-06
   price $139,500
5. 2025-09-11
   listed $149,500 Active
6. 2023-12-01
   soldstatus $130,000
7. 2023-11-15
   soldstatus $130,000 Closed 562-char remark

   Show marketing remark (562 chars)

   Renovated and private! Recently renovated manufactured home surrounded by woods and privacy with low Hamilton County taxes in the Northville Central School District. This manufactured style dwelling is located on a dead-end dirt road 10 minutes from the Village of Northville and the Great Sacandaga Lake. Also, in close proximity to NYS land and the east branch of the Stony Creek! New kitchen, new bathroom, new exterior, new flooring, new walls, new ceilings and more! Two sources of heat. The owner is a New York State licensed real estate salesperson.

8. 2023-10-12
   status Pending 562-char remark

   Show marketing remark (562 chars)

   Renovated and private! Recently renovated manufactured home surrounded by woods and privacy with low Hamilton County taxes in the Northville Central School District. This manufactured style dwelling is located on a dead-end dirt road 10 minutes from the Village of Northville and the Great Sacandaga Lake. Also, in close proximity to NYS land and the east branch of the Stony Creek! New kitchen, new bathroom, new exterior, new flooring, new walls, new ceilings and more! Two sources of heat. The owner is a New York State licensed real estate salesperson.

9. 2023-10-02
   listed $145,000 Active 562-char remark

   Show marketing remark (562 chars)

   Renovated and private! Recently renovated manufactured home surrounded by woods and privacy with low Hamilton County taxes in the Northville Central School District. This manufactured style dwelling is located on a dead-end dirt road 10 minutes from the Village of Northville and the Great Sacandaga Lake. Also, in close proximity to NYS land and the east branch of the Stony Creek! New kitchen, new bathroom, new exterior, new flooring, new walls, new ceilings and more! Two sources of heat. The owner is a New York State licensed real estate salesperson.

10. 2023-04-03
    soldstatus $37,500
11. 2023-03-30
    soldstatus $37,500 Closed 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Looking for privacy? Many possibilities with this 2 bedroom/1 bath mfg home. Perfect as a camp or someone looking to move to a more secluded, private area. Lots of nearby outdoor activities including hunting, hiking, skiing and boating. Everything works! 2 furnaces and 2 sheds. Come take a look.

12. 2023-03-29
    status Pending 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Looking for privacy? Many possibilities with this 2 bedroom/1 bath mfg home. Perfect as a camp or someone looking to move to a more secluded, private area. Lots of nearby outdoor activities including hunting, hiking, skiing and boating. Everything works! 2 furnaces and 2 sheds. Come take a look.

13. 2022-11-28
    status Pending 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Looking for privacy? Many possibilities with this 2 bedroom/1 bath mfg home. Perfect as a camp or someone looking to move to a more secluded, private area. Lots of nearby outdoor activities including hunting, hiking, skiing and boating. Everything works! 2 furnaces and 2 sheds. Come take a look.

14. 2022-11-23
    price $39,900 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Looking for privacy? Many possibilities with this 2 bedroom/1 bath mfg home. Perfect as a camp or someone looking to move to a more secluded, private area. Lots of nearby outdoor activities including hunting, hiking, skiing and boating. Everything works! 2 furnaces and 2 sheds. Come take a look.

15. 2022-11-17
    price $45,000 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Looking for privacy? Many possibilities with this 2 bedroom/1 bath mfg home. Perfect as a camp or someone looking to move to a more secluded, private area. Lots of nearby outdoor activities including hunting, hiking, skiing and boating. Everything works! 2 furnaces and 2 sheds. Come take a look.

16. 2022-10-13
    listed $50,000 Active 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Looking for privacy? Many possibilities with this 2 bedroom/1 bath mfg home. Perfect as a camp or someone looking to move to a more secluded, private area. Lots of nearby outdoor activities including hunting, hiking, skiing and boating. Everything works! 2 furnaces and 2 sheds. Come take a look.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,298 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,298 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$2,298
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $4,304
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,033
• After-tax cash flow: $4,811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621300
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,564
• Composite: 43.1/100
• National rank: #6626
• State rank: #500 of 755 in NY

Livability — Northville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #14567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,093

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,374 people
• By 2030: 4,157 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 3,641 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 3,238 · -26.0%
• By 2075: 2,644 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 2,017 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.3% · R 64.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.6pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+30.3 2016: R+38.8 2012: R+26.2 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.95%
• Current HPI: 358.0334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+130.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $115,000 Global MLS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $125,000 Global MLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $139,500 Global MLS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $149,500 Global MLS
• 2023-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-15 Sold (MLS) $130,000 Global MLS
• 2023-10-12 Pending — Global MLS
• 2023-10-02 Listed $145,000 Global MLS
• 2023-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records
• 2023-03-30 Sold (MLS) $37,500 Global MLS
• 2023-03-29 Pending — Global MLS
• 2022-11-28 Pending — Global MLS
• 2022-11-23 Price Changed $39,900 Global MLS
• 2022-11-17 Price Changed $45,000 Global MLS
• 2022-10-13 Listed $50,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+16.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,298 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.