311 Forrest Ave

Navarre, FL 32569

$130,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 984 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,918/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $715/mo
• Annual: $8,577/yr
• Cap rate: 12.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.56%
• DSCR: 2.05
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $715 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#435 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, schools A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $130k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 4.2% in Navarre — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.