311 Forrest Ave · Navarre, FL 32569

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 984 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1972

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELL KEPT MOBILE HOME WITH ADDITIONAL FLA. ROOM (12X24) HAS WALL UNIT A/ C NOT COUNTED IN SQ. FOOTAGE. THIS IS A RARE OPPURTUNITY!!!

Key facts

• Large front deck
• Fenced lot
• Built 1972

Tags

• FENCED LOT
• LARGE FRONT DECK
• SMALLER COVERED BACK DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $715 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 4.2% in Navarre — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#435 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, schools A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $130k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.56%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,672
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
211 Evergreen Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	960 (-2%)	8mo	$80,000	$83	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $18,806
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $53,147
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32569

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,918 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $772/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $715

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,013

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $788	-5% $752	+0% $715	+5% $678	+10% $641
Rent	-10% $563	-5% $639	+0% $715	+5% $790	+10% $866
Rate	-1.0pp $780	-0.5pp $748	base $715	+0.5pp $681	+1.0pp $647

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Ridgewood Ave Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,870	$1.67	44d	1	0.33mi
324 Michael Cir Mary Esther, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	44d	1	0.66mi
2040 Falconhurst Pl Unit 2040 Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	990	$2,800	$2.83	24d	1	0.77mi
806 Boulevard de Lorleans Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	44d	1	0.91mi
806 Boulevard de Lorleans Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	22d	1	0.91mi
2189 Jeannie St Navarre, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	24d	1	1.20mi
2154 Whispering Pines Blvd Unit 3 Navarre, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	15d	1	1.45mi
2154 Whispering Pines Blvd Unit 3 Navarre, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	24d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $130,000 Active 154-char remark
17. 2007-09-05
    soldstatus $55,000
18. 1999-05-26
    soldstatus $27,500
19. 1999-04-16
    soldstatus $27,500 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    WELL KEPT MOBILE HOME WITH ADDITIONAL FLA. ROOM (12X24) HAS WALL UNIT A/ C NOT COUNTED IN SQ. FOOTAGE. THIS IS A RARE OPPURTUNITY!!!

20. 1999-03-24
    listed $29,900 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    WELL KEPT MOBILE HOME WITH ADDITIONAL FLA. ROOM (12X24) HAS WALL UNIT A/ C NOT COUNTED IN SQ. FOOTAGE. THIS IS A RARE OPPURTUNITY!!!

21. 1981-02-01
    soldstatus $17,500
22. 1977-01-01
    soldstatus $11,580

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $772 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$307/yr (+$26/mo · 39.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$772
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $6,845
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,643
• After-tax cash flow: $6,934/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Navarre

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #7790

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 43,883
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,063
• Household income: $77,718
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Two or more races 12% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.13%
• Current HPI: 269.266
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1022.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $130,000 FSBO.com
• 2007-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1999-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
• 1999-04-16 Sold (MLS) $27,500 NAMLS
• 1999-03-24 Listed $29,900 NAMLS
• 1981-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records
• 1977-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,580 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $772 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.