4062 Bud Umphrey Rd

Walnut Grove, AL 35952

$106,500B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 142 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,485/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$558
• Tax + insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $512/mo
• Annual: $6,142/yr
• Cap rate: 12.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.60%
• DSCR: 1.92
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $29,820

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $106k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $106k).
• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($736 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#396 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Etowah County (suburban): math 21% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #36 of 129 in AL (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West End Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #213 of 627 statewide, top 37%, 390 students, 78% FRL); West End High School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #216 of 305 statewide, top 72%, 370 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 41% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Etowah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Etowah County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $106k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.