4062 Bud Umphrey Rd · Walnut Grove, AL 35952

$106,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1965 1.15 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

1965 RANCHER ON 1.2 ACRES! House offers a living room, dining room, family room and laundry. Two bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a large enclosed porch.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Two-car carport
• Large living room

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• PRIVATE SETTING
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• TWO-CAR CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $106k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $106k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#396 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Etowah County (suburban): math 21% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #36 of 129 in AL (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West End Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #213 of 627 statewide, top 37%, 390 students, 78% FRL); West End High School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #216 of 305 statewide, top 72%, 370 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 41% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Etowah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($736 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Etowah County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $106k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.60%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.04×
• Total profit: $90,579
• Equity at exit: $95,944

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.08×
• Total profit: $241,057
• Equity at exit: $206,906

Cash invested: $29,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35952

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,485 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$558
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $704/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $837

Max offer price $106,500

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,625
• Closing costs: $3,195
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-23
   price $106,500
3. 2026-02-06
   price $109,500
4. 2025-11-20
   status Active
5. 2025-10-11
   status Pending
6. 2025-09-30
   status Active
7. 2025-09-20
   status Pending
8. 2025-09-08
   listed $119,500 Active
9. 2024-04-01
   soldstatus $42,000 Sold 149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (149 chars)

   1965 RANCHER ON 1.2 ACRES! House offers a living room, dining room, family room and laundry. Two bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a large enclosed porch.

10. 2024-02-22
    status Pending 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    1965 RANCHER ON 1.2 ACRES! House offers a living room, dining room, family room and laundry. Two bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a large enclosed porch.

11. 2024-02-14
    listed $38,000 Active 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    1965 RANCHER ON 1.2 ACRES! House offers a living room, dining room, family room and laundry. Two bedrooms and 1 bathroom with a large enclosed porch.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $704 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $704 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,966
• − Property taxes: −$704
• − Insurance: −$532
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,426
• − Management: −$1,426
• − Depreciation: −$3,098
• Taxable income: $4,671
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,121
• After-tax cash flow: $5,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Etowah County
• NCES district ID: 0101380
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,403
• Composite: 31.12/100
• National rank: #6062
• State rank: #36 of 129 in AL

Livability — Walnut Grove

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #22282

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Walnut Grove, AL
• City population: 8,901
• Population (ZIP): 8,901

Population outlook (Etowah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,500 people
• By 2030: 98,488 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 93,731 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 88,681 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 76,746 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 65,373 · -35.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Etowah

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.8% · R 77.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+50.2 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+38.4 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.05%
• Current HPI: 249.8629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+180.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — VMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $106,500 VMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $109,500 VMLS
• 2025-11-20 Relisted — VMLS
• 2025-10-11 Pending — VMLS
• 2025-09-30 Relisted — VMLS
• 2025-09-20 Pending — VMLS
• 2025-09-08 Listed $119,500 VMLS
• 2024-04-01 Sold (MLS) $42,000 VMLS
• 2024-02-22 Pending — VMLS
• 2024-02-14 Listed $38,000 VMLS

Property tax history

+26.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $704 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.