6780 N Trico Rd

Picture Rocks, AZ 85653

$160,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 155 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,276/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$228
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $-60/mo
• Annual: $-715/yr
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.68%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-715/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (20.3% below list).
• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#261 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Picture Rocks Elementary (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 493 students, 67% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 418 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $160k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?