6780 N Trico Rd · Picture Rocks, AZ 85653

$160,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured · 154 Days on market

Built 1984 $205/sqft · 28% below area Est $223k · 28% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home needs remodel (fixer upper), vaulted living room and kitchen ceilings. Property is nearly 5 acres (4.80) with private gravel driveway. Zoned RH, so you can live out your homesteading dreams here. Historical permit building to the west side of the home, used to be a stable for horses, water spigot near it as well. Reconstruction does not require permits

Key facts

• Zoned rh
• Water spigot
• Built 1984

Tags

• PRIVATE GRAVEL DRIVEWAY
• ZONED RH
• HISTORICAL PERMIT BUILDING
• WATER SPIGOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.6% in Picture Rocks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#261 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Picture Rocks Elementary (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 493 students, 67% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $160k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.74%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,452
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -44.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,830
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $14,225
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85653

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $472/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,351

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $332	-5% $287	+0% $241	+5% $196	+10% $151
Rent	-10% $111	-5% $176	+0% $241	+5% $307	+10% $372
Rate	-1.0pp $322	-0.5pp $282	base $241	+0.5pp $200	+1.0pp $158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 133 DOM
17. 2026-05-17
    historical
18. 2026-05-04
    status Active
19. 2026-04-16
    historical Active Contingent
20. 2026-04-14
    price $125,000
21. 2026-03-02
    price $135,000
22. 2026-01-19
    listed $150,000 Active
23. 2026-01-14
    listed $160,000 Active 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Home needs remodel (fixer upper), vaulted living room and kitchen ceilings. Property is nearly 5 acres (4.80) with private gravel driveway. Zoned RH, so you can live out your homesteading dreams here. Historical permit building to the west side of the home, used to be a stable for horses, water spigot near it as well. Reconstruction does not require permits

24. 2022-04-12
    soldstatus $78,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $472 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,056 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$584/yr (+$49/mo · 123.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AO · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$472
• − Insurance: −$2,268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,590
• − Management: −$1,590
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $343
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$82
• After-tax cash flow: $2,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Picture Rocks

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #23370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Picture Rocks, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,574
• Household income: $86,154
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.29%
• Current HPI: 249.3403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+60.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-16 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $125,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $135,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-19 Listed $150,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-14 Listed $160,000 Fizber.com
• 2022-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $472 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.