3811 Hawk View St

Round Rock, TX 78665

$289,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,426 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,416/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$669
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-280/mo
• Annual: $-3,360/yr
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.14%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (16.6% below list).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $240k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#56 in TX, #2,184 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Round Rock ISD (urban): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #86 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caldwell Heights El (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 654 students, 59% FRL); Hopewell Middle (math 35% / reading 46%, grade F, #637 of 1,662 statewide, top 39%, 1,184 students, 32% FRL); Stony Point H S (math 40% / reading 57%, grade D, #560 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 2,570 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 26% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Round Rock ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 455 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.7% in Round Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.