3588 Nash Dr

Napoleon, MI 49201

$19,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Pending · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,443/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$100
• Tax + insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $1,009/mo
• Annual: $12,104/yr
• Cap rate: 70.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 227.51%
• DSCR: 11.12
• 1% rule: 7.59%
• Cash to close: $5,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $19k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $19k).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $17k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $131 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $570 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#600 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Michigan Center School District (suburban): math 19% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #387 of 540 in MI (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 317 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (103 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 10 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $19k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 70.0% vs local median 1.6% in Napoleon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.