17599 Dark Zebra Way

Caldwell, ID 83687-8168

$378,890D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,905 sqft · Built 2006 · Other · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,716/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,987
• Tax + insurance: −$313
• HOA: −$17
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$570
• Net cashflow: $-170/mo
• Annual: $-2,045/yr
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.93%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $106,089

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $379k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (28.3% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($373k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $272k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#88 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Vallivue School District (rural): math 34% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #48 of 92 in ID (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Desert Springs Elementary School (math 46% / reading 50%, grade D, #174 of 357 statewide, top 49%, 667 students, 39% FRL); Sage Valley Middle School (math 27% / reading 55%, grade F, #68 of 109 statewide, top 62%, 810 students, 28% FRL); Ridgevue High School (math 27% / reading 67%, grade D-, #55 of 169 statewide, top 34%, 1,578 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 52% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in Caldwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.