17599 Dark Zebra Way · Caldwell, ID 83687-8168

$378,890

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,905 sqft · Other public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2006 6,969 sqft lot $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW 20K professionally roof with full gutters and backed by a 10-year warranty, plus a $7,500 buyer credit for new carpet/paint or rate buydown! Back on the market due to no fault of the seller. Welcome to this inviting 4-bedroom home featuring a spacious primary suite on the main level and a unique yet functional floor plan that feels open, comfortable, and easy to enjoy. The beautiful kitchen offers great space to gather, and there is generous storage throughout. Step outside to the covered back patio with a nice overhang and patio rollers blinds, perfect for relaxing evenings or entertaining. Situated on a corner lot, this home offers great curb appeal and room to spread out. Being

Key facts

• Covered back patio
• Corner lot
• 6,969 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED BACK PATIO
• CORNER LOT
• WELL-ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R1; Property currently used as single family; Paved road access; Subdivision: Monarch
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $200

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 3 covered garage spaces; Garage dimensions approximately 26 x 22; Garage door access
• Utilities: City water service; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Built in 2006
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation; Built by M3 Custom Homes
• Exterior features: Partial wood fencing; Garden; Corner lot; Irrigation available; Auto sprinkler system / full sprinkler / pressurized irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (11 x 13); Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Freestanding oven/range; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Main-level master bedroom (18 x 15); Upper-level bedroom (12 x 10); Upper-level bedroom (11 x 12); Upper-level bedroom (13 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (natural gas); No central cooling listed
• Interior features: Master bath; Main-level master bedroom; Walk-in closets; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Solid surface countertops; Gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater; Tank-style water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $379k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.0% in Caldwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#88 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Vallivue School District (rural): math 34% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #48 of 92 in ID (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Desert Springs Elementary School (math 46% / reading 50%, grade D, #174 of 357 statewide, top 49%, 667 students, 39% FRL); Sage Valley Middle School (math 27% / reading 55%, grade F, #68 of 109 statewide, top 62%, 810 students, 28% FRL); Ridgevue High School (math 27% / reading 67%, grade D-, #55 of 169 statewide, top 34%, 1,578 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 52% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($373k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,650 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.93%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $34,643
• Equity at exit: $170,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $138,399
• Equity at exit: $262,553

Cash invested: $106,089 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83687-8168

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,716 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,987
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,856/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$570
• Net cashflow: $-170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,932

Max offer price $348,780

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-63	+0% $-170	+5% $-278	+10% $-385
Rent	-10% $-385	-5% $-278	+0% $-170	+5% $-63	+10% $44
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-74	base $-170	+0.5pp $-269	+1.0pp $-369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,722
• Closing costs: $11,367
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17707 Mesa Springs Ave Nampa, ID	4.0	2.5	2120	$2,600	$1.23	16d	1	0.14mi
10569 Cool Springs St Unit 1460908P Nampa, ID	3.0	2.0	1517	$3,826	$2.52	5d	1	0.23mi
10100 Longtail Dr Nampa, ID	3.0	2.0	1466	$2,250	$1.53	25d	1	0.43mi
10371 Longtail Dr Nampa, ID	4.0	2.0	2290	$2,445	$1.07	5d	1	0.50mi
17719 Jackson Ridge Way Nampa, ID	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,250	$1.83	25d	1	0.52mi
18173 Shady Pond Ave Nampa, ID	3.0	2.5	1577	$2,380	$1.51	5d	3	0.82mi
18285 Arch Haven Way Nampa, ID	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,295	$1.26	25d	1	0.90mi
10201 Cherry Ln Nampa, ID	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$2,225	$2.16	5d	18	0.93mi
10238 Hazy Glen Dr Nampa, ID	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,445	$1.14	25d	1	0.98mi
401 Canyon Village Ln Caldwell, ID	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1161	$2,758	$2.38	5d	31	1.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-02
   status Active
3. 2026-05-02
   price $378,890
4. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-08
   listed $398,890 Active
6. 2006-08-22
   soldstatus
7. 2006-03-24
   listed $199,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ID · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,856 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,614 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$758/yr (+$63/mo · 40.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,224
• − Property taxes: −$1,856
• − Insurance: −$1,894
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,608
• − Management: −$2,608
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$11,022
• Taxable loss: −$8,818
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,116
• After-tax cash flow: $71/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vallivue School District
• NCES district ID: 1600600
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,377
• Composite: 38.3/100
• National rank: #4229
• State rank: #48 of 92 in ID

Livability — Caldwell

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #10145

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caldwell, ID

Population outlook (Canyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 269,596 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 311,081 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 350,809 · +41.0%
• By 2075: 441,884 · +77.6%
• By 2100: 505,641 · +103.2%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

+89.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — IMLS
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — IMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $378,890 IMLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — IMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $398,890 IMLS
• 2006-08-22 Sold (MLS) — IMLS
• 2006-03-24 Listed $199,900 IMLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,856 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.