12307 Course View Dr

San Antonio, TX 78221

$175,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,342 sqft · Built 2006 · Land · Pending · 261 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,168/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$770
• HOA: −$29
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-4/mo
• Annual: $-50/yr
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-50/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (0.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Julian C Gallardo El (math 13% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,805 of 4,322 statewide, top 89%, 544 students, 87% FRL); Southside H S (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,685 students, 85% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.8% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-7.2%/yr); 369 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $154k (47%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?