12305 Turnerville Farms Dr

Saraland, AL 36521

$165,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $987/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $-361/mo
• Annual: $-4,330/yr
• Cap rate: 3.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.37%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-361 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (31.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (40.2% below list).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (40.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#72 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcdavidjones Elementary School (math 20% / reading 45%, grade F, #329 of 627 statewide, top 53%, 836 students, 69% FRL); Lott Middle School (math 9% / reading 44%, grade F, #150 of 257 statewide, top 60%, 429 students, 82% FRL); Citronelle High School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #261 of 305 statewide, top 87%, 719 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.