12305 Turnerville Farms Dr · Saraland, AL 36521

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 102 Days on market

3.03 ac lot $129/sqft · 36% below area Est $257k · 36% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New price!! Seller may consider 3K towards the buyer's closing costs with an acceptable offer! It is my pleasure to introduce 12305 Turnerville Farms Road in Chunchula, Alabama—a peaceful retreat offering the charm of country living with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home features approximately 1,280 square feet of living space and sits on a beautiful 3.03-acre lot, providing privacy and space to spread out or envision and build your dream home! Inside, the mobile home offers a comfortable split-bedroom floor plan with an open-concept living and dining area, creating a welcoming space for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen includes stained cabinetry, laminate countertops, and a pantry, offering a functional space for everyday living. Enjoy the peaceful surroundings that make country living so desirable. If you’ve been looking for space, privacy, and a quiet setting while still being within reach of nearby conveniences, this property is a wonderful opportunity.

Key facts

• Stained cabinetry
• Pantry
• 3 acre lot

Tags

• 3 ACRE LOT
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• STAINED CABINETRY
• LAMINATE COUNTERTOPS
• PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-361 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (31.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (40.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $99k (40.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#72 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcdavidjones Elementary School (math 20% / reading 45%, grade F, #329 of 627 statewide, top 53%, 836 students, 69% FRL); Lott Middle School (math 9% / reading 44%, grade F, #150 of 257 statewide, top 60%, 429 students, 82% FRL); Citronelle High School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #261 of 305 statewide, top 87%, 719 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,669 (40.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.37%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,537
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -35.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12100 Roberts Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,371 (+7%)	17mo	$250,000	$182	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $66,899
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $215,107
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36521

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $987 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $-361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $112,793

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-247	-5% $-304	+0% $-361	+5% $-418	+10% $-475
Rent	-10% $-439	-5% $-400	+0% $-361	+5% $-322	+10% $-283
Rate	-1.0pp $-278	-0.5pp $-319	base $-361	+0.5pp $-404	+1.0pp $-447

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $165,000 Active 80 DOM
18. 2026-05-01
    price $175,000 1027-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1027 chars)

    New price!! Seller may consider 3K towards the buyer's closing costs with an acceptable offer! It is my pleasure to introduce 12305 Turnerville Farms Road in Chunchula, Alabama—a peaceful retreat offering the charm of country living with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home features approximately 1,280 square feet of living space and sits on a beautiful 3.03-acre lot, providing privacy and space to spread out or envision and build your dream home! Inside, the mobile home offers a comfortable split-bedroom floor plan with an open-concept living and dining area, creating a welcoming space for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen includes stained cabinetry, laminate countertops, and a pantry, offering a functional space for everyday living. Enjoy the peaceful surroundings that make country living so desirable. If you’ve been looking for space, privacy, and a quiet setting while still being within reach of nearby conveniences, this property is a wonderful opportunity.

19. 2026-04-08
    price $184,000 1027-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1027 chars)

    New price!! Seller may consider 3K towards the buyer's closing costs with an acceptable offer! It is my pleasure to introduce 12305 Turnerville Farms Road in Chunchula, Alabama—a peaceful retreat offering the charm of country living with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home features approximately 1,280 square feet of living space and sits on a beautiful 3.03-acre lot, providing privacy and space to spread out or envision and build your dream home! Inside, the mobile home offers a comfortable split-bedroom floor plan with an open-concept living and dining area, creating a welcoming space for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen includes stained cabinetry, laminate countertops, and a pantry, offering a functional space for everyday living. Enjoy the peaceful surroundings that make country living so desirable. If you’ve been looking for space, privacy, and a quiet setting while still being within reach of nearby conveniences, this property is a wonderful opportunity.

20. 2026-03-11
    listed $189,000 Active 1027-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1027 chars)

    New price!! Seller may consider 3K towards the buyer's closing costs with an acceptable offer! It is my pleasure to introduce 12305 Turnerville Farms Road in Chunchula, Alabama—a peaceful retreat offering the charm of country living with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home features approximately 1,280 square feet of living space and sits on a beautiful 3.03-acre lot, providing privacy and space to spread out or envision and build your dream home! Inside, the mobile home offers a comfortable split-bedroom floor plan with an open-concept living and dining area, creating a welcoming space for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen includes stained cabinetry, laminate countertops, and a pantry, offering a functional space for everyday living. Enjoy the peaceful surroundings that make country living so desirable. If you’ve been looking for space, privacy, and a quiet setting while still being within reach of nearby conveniences, this property is a wonderful opportunity.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$947
• − Management: −$947
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$7,397
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,775
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Saraland

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #9880

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 17,143
• Population (ZIP): 6,060

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.65%
• Current HPI: 391.2182
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $175,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $184,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-11 Listed $189,000 GCMLS AL