27811 Gilbert Dr

Warren, MI 48093

$215,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,764 sqft · Built 1944 · SingleFamily · Pending · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,919/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$458
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-69/mo
• Annual: $-826/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-826/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (10.7% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $192k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime D-.
• Center Line Public Schools (suburban): math 14% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #459 of 540 in MI (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crothers Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,172 of 1,397 statewide, top 85%, 341 students, 79% FRL); Wolfe Middle School (math 13% / reading 31%, grade F, #408 of 493 statewide, top 84%, 500 students, 72% FRL); Center Line High School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #481 of 713 statewide, top 81%, 663 students, 67% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 10 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $215k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?