2961 Black Knob Church Rd

Ranger, GA 30734

$259,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2025 · Other · Pending · 230 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,980/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-232/mo
• Annual: $-2,786/yr
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.83%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $72,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (23.8% below list).
• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#591 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pickens County (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #59 of 174 in GA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hill City Elementary School (math 47% / reading 32%, grade F, #435 of 1,228 statewide, top 37%, 596 students, 45% FRL); Pickens County High School (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #127 of 424 statewide, top 30%, 1,259 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 219 active listings in the ZIP; 260 units permitted in Pickens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $260k implies a 478% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.1% in Ranger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.