26 Willow Bend Dr S

Billings, MT 59102

$63,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built 2017 · Manufactured · Pending · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,638/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $859/mo
• Annual: $10,307/yr
• Cap rate: 22.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.43%
• DSCR: 3.60
• 1% rule: 2.60%
• Cash to close: $17,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $63k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $859 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $63k).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $436 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#10 in MT, #1,830 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Elysian Elementary (rural): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #15 of 116 in MT (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Elysian School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #57 of 293 statewide, top 22%, 307 students, 0% FRL); Elysian Middle School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade C, #26 of 146 statewide, top 22%, 144 students, 0% FRL); Billings West High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #35 of 132 statewide, top 27%, 2,269 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 29% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,401 units permitted in Yellowstone County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yellowstone County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 22.7% vs local median 3.0% in Billings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.