26 Willow Bend Dr S · Billings, MT 59102

$63,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured · 49 Days on market

Built 2017 Est $73k · 14% under ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, Location, Location! This cute and “super nice” west end home boasts new flooring and fresh paint throughout, enhancing its contemporary open concept design. Enjoy the new wooden front deck and stairs leading to a spacious yard complete with a practical shed for additional storage. With three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, this home offers comfortable living spaces and a floor-plan ideal for modern lifestyles. All appliances stay making this home move-in ready. Financing programs are available with as little as 5% down. Info deemed reliable but not guaranteed-buyer/buyer agent to verify.

Key facts

• Updated mobile home
• Spacious backyard
• Practical shed

Tags

• UPDATED MOBILE HOME
• NEW FLOORING AND PAINT
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• PRACTICAL SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $63k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $859 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $63k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.7% vs local median 3.0% in Billings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#10 in MT, #1,830 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Elysian Elementary (rural): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #15 of 116 in MT (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,401 units permitted in Yellowstone County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $436 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yellowstone County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $61,110 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.43%
• DSCR: 3.60
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $72,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36 Chestnut Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+5%)	2mo	$55,000	$46	70
16 Bridlewood Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+7%)	9mo	$30,000	$25	69
16 Brookpark Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,226 (+8%)	7mo	$40,000	$33	66
8 Redrock Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+7%)	10mo	$89,900	$74	64
6 Northglen Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+7%)	3mo	$89,500	$74	64
13 Willow Bend Dr N	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+7%)	21mo	$79,900	$66	64
31 Wheatland Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+7%)	21mo	$77,700	$64	59
7 Wild Oak Drive Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-7%)	21mo	$49,995	$47	59
31 W Meadow Drive Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+10%)	10mo	$47,500	$38	55
14 Walnut Grove Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+8%)	20mo	$125,000	$101	49
44 Bridlewood Dr Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (+7%)	20mo	$70,000	$58	49
4 Redrock Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0	980 (-14%)	18mo	$64,900	$66	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $47,937
• Equity at exit: $9,394

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.19×
• Total profit: $126,891
• Equity at exit: $5,447

Cash invested: $17,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59102

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,638 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$79 /mo · $945/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $859

Break-even live

Break-even rent $551

Max offer price $63,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $902	-5% $881	+0% $859	+5% $837	+10% $815
Rent	-10% $730	-5% $794	+0% $859	+5% $924	+10% $988
Rate	-1.0pp $891	-0.5pp $875	base $859	+0.5pp $843	+1.0pp $826

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,750
• Closing costs: $1,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3290 Granger Ave E Billings, MT	1.0–2.0	1.0	686	$1,225	$1.79	14d	5	0.57mi
3900 Olympic Blvd Billings, MT	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,695	$1.76	14d	5	0.90mi
371 Cape Cod Dr Billings, MT	2.0	1.5	1175	$1,495	$1.27	22d	1	0.98mi
353 Cape Cod Dr Unit 3 Billings, MT	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,295	$1.23	14d	1	0.99mi
3900 Victory Cir Billings, MT	2.0	1.0	966	$1,360	$1.41	14d	21	1.11mi
2604 Phyllis Ln Billings, MT	2.0–3.0	1.0	792	$1,575	$1.99	14d	2	1.31mi
218 Brookshire Blvd Billings, MT	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,445	$1.28	22d	1	1.38mi
3040 Central Ave Billings, MT	3.0	1.0–2.0	887	$1,867	$2.10	14d	25	1.40mi
501 S 44th St W Billings, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$2,250	$2.20	14d	7	1.48mi
611 S 44th St W Billings, MT	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,150	$1.57	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2024-12-12
   soldstatus Closed 617-char remark

   Show marketing remark (617 chars)

   Location, Location, Location! This cute and “super nice” west end home boasts new flooring and fresh paint throughout, enhancing its contemporary open concept design. Enjoy the new wooden front deck and stairs leading to a spacious yard complete with a practical shed for additional storage. With three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, this home offers comfortable living spaces and a floor-plan ideal for modern lifestyles. All appliances stay making this home move-in ready. Financing programs are available with as little as 5% down. Info deemed reliable but not guaranteed-buyer/buyer agent to verify.

2. 2024-11-22
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (617 chars)

   Location, Location, Location! This cute and “super nice” west end home boasts new flooring and fresh paint throughout, enhancing its contemporary open concept design. Enjoy the new wooden front deck and stairs leading to a spacious yard complete with a practical shed for additional storage. With three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, this home offers comfortable living spaces and a floor-plan ideal for modern lifestyles. All appliances stay making this home move-in ready. Financing programs are available with as little as 5% down. Info deemed reliable but not guaranteed-buyer/buyer agent to verify.

3. 2024-11-22
   historical Active Under Contract 617-char remark

   Show marketing remark (617 chars)

   Location, Location, Location! This cute and “super nice” west end home boasts new flooring and fresh paint throughout, enhancing its contemporary open concept design. Enjoy the new wooden front deck and stairs leading to a spacious yard complete with a practical shed for additional storage. With three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, this home offers comfortable living spaces and a floor-plan ideal for modern lifestyles. All appliances stay making this home move-in ready. Financing programs are available with as little as 5% down. Info deemed reliable but not guaranteed-buyer/buyer agent to verify.

4. 2024-10-28
   price $63,000

   Show marketing remark (617 chars)

   Location, Location, Location! This cute and “super nice” west end home boasts new flooring and fresh paint throughout, enhancing its contemporary open concept design. Enjoy the new wooden front deck and stairs leading to a spacious yard complete with a practical shed for additional storage. With three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, this home offers comfortable living spaces and a floor-plan ideal for modern lifestyles. All appliances stay making this home move-in ready. Financing programs are available with as little as 5% down. Info deemed reliable but not guaranteed-buyer/buyer agent to verify.

5. 2024-10-28
   price $63,000 617-char remark

   Show marketing remark (617 chars)

   Location, Location, Location! This cute and “super nice” west end home boasts new flooring and fresh paint throughout, enhancing its contemporary open concept design. Enjoy the new wooden front deck and stairs leading to a spacious yard complete with a practical shed for additional storage. With three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, this home offers comfortable living spaces and a floor-plan ideal for modern lifestyles. All appliances stay making this home move-in ready. Financing programs are available with as little as 5% down. Info deemed reliable but not guaranteed-buyer/buyer agent to verify.

6. 2024-10-17
   price $73,000

   Show marketing remark (617 chars)

   Location, Location, Location! This cute and “super nice” west end home boasts new flooring and fresh paint throughout, enhancing its contemporary open concept design. Enjoy the new wooden front deck and stairs leading to a spacious yard complete with a practical shed for additional storage. With three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, this home offers comfortable living spaces and a floor-plan ideal for modern lifestyles. All appliances stay making this home move-in ready. Financing programs are available with as little as 5% down. Info deemed reliable but not guaranteed-buyer/buyer agent to verify.

7. 2024-10-17
   price $73,000 617-char remark

   Show marketing remark (617 chars)

   Location, Location, Location! This cute and “super nice” west end home boasts new flooring and fresh paint throughout, enhancing its contemporary open concept design. Enjoy the new wooden front deck and stairs leading to a spacious yard complete with a practical shed for additional storage. With three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, this home offers comfortable living spaces and a floor-plan ideal for modern lifestyles. All appliances stay making this home move-in ready. Financing programs are available with as little as 5% down. Info deemed reliable but not guaranteed-buyer/buyer agent to verify.

8. 2024-10-04
   listed $83,000 Active 617-char remark

   Show marketing remark (617 chars)

   Location, Location, Location! This cute and “super nice” west end home boasts new flooring and fresh paint throughout, enhancing its contemporary open concept design. Enjoy the new wooden front deck and stairs leading to a spacious yard complete with a practical shed for additional storage. With three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, this home offers comfortable living spaces and a floor-plan ideal for modern lifestyles. All appliances stay making this home move-in ready. Financing programs are available with as little as 5% down. Info deemed reliable but not guaranteed-buyer/buyer agent to verify.

9. 2024-10-04
   listed $83,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (617 chars)

   Location, Location, Location! This cute and “super nice” west end home boasts new flooring and fresh paint throughout, enhancing its contemporary open concept design. Enjoy the new wooden front deck and stairs leading to a spacious yard complete with a practical shed for additional storage. With three bedrooms and two full bathrooms, this home offers comfortable living spaces and a floor-plan ideal for modern lifestyles. All appliances stay making this home move-in ready. Financing programs are available with as little as 5% down. Info deemed reliable but not guaranteed-buyer/buyer agent to verify.

10. 2024-08-28
    price $95,000
11. 2024-08-27
    price $95,000
12. 2024-08-15
    listed $99,999 Active
13. 2024-08-07
    price $100,000
14. 2024-08-07
    price $100,000
15. 2024-08-01
    price $105,000
16. 2024-08-01
    price $105,000
17. 2024-07-18
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,661
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,529
• − Property taxes: −$945
• − Insurance: −$315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,573
• − Management: −$1,573
• − Depreciation: −$1,833
• Taxable income: $9,893
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,374
• After-tax cash flow: $7,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elysian Elementary
• NCES district ID: 3009840
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,094
• Composite: 44.96/100
• National rank: #2705
• State rank: #15 of 116 in MT

Livability — Billings

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1830

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Billings, MT
• County: Yellowstone County · 159,426 people
• City population: 147,124
• Metro: Billings, MT
• Population (ZIP): 47,977
• Household income: $76,141
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1584.0

Population outlook (Yellowstone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,227 people
• By 2030: 185,619 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 203,543 · +15.5%
• By 2050: 221,100 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 266,931 · +51.5%
• By 2100: 301,141 · +70.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yellowstone

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 34.9% · R 62.0% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -364.20%
• Current HPI: 205.0915
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Metro: Billings, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-42.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-12 Sold (MLS) — BMTMLS
• 2024-11-22 Pending — MRMLS
• 2024-11-22 Contingent — BMTMLS
• 2024-10-28 Price Changed $63,000 MRMLS
• 2024-10-28 Price Changed $63,000 BMTMLS
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $73,000 MRMLS
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $73,000 BMTMLS
• 2024-10-04 Listed $83,000 BMTMLS
• 2024-10-04 Listed $83,000 MRMLS
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $95,000 MRMLS
• 2024-08-27 Price Changed $95,000 BMTMLS
• 2024-08-15 Listed $99,999 MRMLS
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $100,000 BMTMLS
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $100,000 MRMLS
• 2024-08-01 Price Changed $105,000 MRMLS
• 2024-08-01 Price Changed $105,000 BMTMLS
• 2024-07-18 Listed $110,000 MRMLS