1304 Hwy 120 Hwy

Natchitoches, LA 71469

$195,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Pending · 217 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,428/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-28/mo
• Annual: $-336/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-336/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (26.8% below list).
• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#382 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, housing D+.
• Natchitoches Parish (town): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #41 of 98 in LA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Natchitoches Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Natchitoches County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Natchitoches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.