1304 Hwy 120 Hwy · Natchitoches, LA 71469

$195,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · Manufactured · 217 Days on market

Built 2004 2.23 ac lot $81/sqft · at area comps Est $200k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy peaceful country living in this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on 2.23 acres with trees and plenty of privacy. Inside, you'll find two large living areas, including a versatile game room with a wet bar or coffee bar, for entertaining. The open kitchen features updated appliances, tile flooring, abundant counter space, and a walk-in pantry. Each bedroom includes a walk-in closet, and the guest area offers a built-in desk for a home office or study. The guest bath features dual vanities, a garden tub, and an ADA-accessible shower with easy access to the laundry room. The primary suite is a relaxing retreat with double closets, dual vanities, a Jacuzzi tub, and a separate shower. Enjoy quiet mornings on the covered front porch and the convenience of two-car covered parking. This property offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and tranquility, just minutes from Northwestern State University and local amenities.

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Wet bar
• Large living areas

Tags

• LARGE LIVING AREAS
• GAME ROOM
• WET BAR
• OPEN KITCHEN
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-336/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Natchitoches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#382 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, housing D+.
• Natchitoches Parish (town): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #41 of 98 in LA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Natchitoches Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Natchitoches County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,829 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,000
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -2.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1304 Hwy 120 Hwy	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,400 (0%)	0mo	$200,000	$83	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $21,613
• Equity at exit: $87,680

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $79,335
• Equity at exit: $135,126

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71469

• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $630/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,464

Max offer price $190,058

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $27	+0% $-28	+5% $-83	+10% $-138
Rent	-10% $-141	-5% $-84	+0% $-28	+5% $28	+10% $85
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $22	base $-28	+0.5pp $-79	+1.0pp $-130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-15
   price $195,000 941-char remark

   Show marketing remark (941 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living in this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on 2.23 acres with trees and plenty of privacy. Inside, you'll find two large living areas, including a versatile game room with a wet bar or coffee bar, for entertaining. The open kitchen features updated appliances, tile flooring, abundant counter space, and a walk-in pantry. Each bedroom includes a walk-in closet, and the guest area offers a built-in desk for a home office or study. The guest bath features dual vanities, a garden tub, and an ADA-accessible shower with easy access to the laundry room. The primary suite is a relaxing retreat with double closets, dual vanities, a Jacuzzi tub, and a separate shower. Enjoy quiet mornings on the covered front porch and the convenience of two-car covered parking. This property offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and tranquility, just minutes from Northwestern State University and local amenities.

2. 2026-02-11
   price $199,000 941-char remark

   Show marketing remark (941 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living in this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on 2.23 acres with trees and plenty of privacy. Inside, you'll find two large living areas, including a versatile game room with a wet bar or coffee bar, for entertaining. The open kitchen features updated appliances, tile flooring, abundant counter space, and a walk-in pantry. Each bedroom includes a walk-in closet, and the guest area offers a built-in desk for a home office or study. The guest bath features dual vanities, a garden tub, and an ADA-accessible shower with easy access to the laundry room. The primary suite is a relaxing retreat with double closets, dual vanities, a Jacuzzi tub, and a separate shower. Enjoy quiet mornings on the covered front porch and the convenience of two-car covered parking. This property offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and tranquility, just minutes from Northwestern State University and local amenities.

3. 2025-11-26
   price $209,000 941-char remark

   Show marketing remark (941 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living in this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on 2.23 acres with trees and plenty of privacy. Inside, you'll find two large living areas, including a versatile game room with a wet bar or coffee bar, for entertaining. The open kitchen features updated appliances, tile flooring, abundant counter space, and a walk-in pantry. Each bedroom includes a walk-in closet, and the guest area offers a built-in desk for a home office or study. The guest bath features dual vanities, a garden tub, and an ADA-accessible shower with easy access to the laundry room. The primary suite is a relaxing retreat with double closets, dual vanities, a Jacuzzi tub, and a separate shower. Enjoy quiet mornings on the covered front porch and the convenience of two-car covered parking. This property offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and tranquility, just minutes from Northwestern State University and local amenities.

4. 2025-10-21
   listed $215,000 Active 941-char remark

   Show marketing remark (941 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living in this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on 2.23 acres with trees and plenty of privacy. Inside, you'll find two large living areas, including a versatile game room with a wet bar or coffee bar, for entertaining. The open kitchen features updated appliances, tile flooring, abundant counter space, and a walk-in pantry. Each bedroom includes a walk-in closet, and the guest area offers a built-in desk for a home office or study. The guest bath features dual vanities, a garden tub, and an ADA-accessible shower with easy access to the laundry room. The primary suite is a relaxing retreat with double closets, dual vanities, a Jacuzzi tub, and a separate shower. Enjoy quiet mornings on the covered front porch and the convenience of two-car covered parking. This property offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and tranquility, just minutes from Northwestern State University and local amenities.

5. 2024-06-26
   listed $210,000 Active
6. 2004-02-24
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $630 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,072 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$443/yr (+$37/mo · 70.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$630
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,371
• − Management: −$1,371
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,803
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$913
• After-tax cash flow: $577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchitoches Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201140
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -27.00%
• Median HH income: $30,204
• Composite: 26.36/100
• National rank: #7235
• State rank: #41 of 98 in LA

Livability — Natchitoches

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #382
• US rank: #23935

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 27,214
• Population (ZIP): 2,914

Population outlook (Natchitoches County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,130 people
• By 2030: 37,412 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 35,550 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 33,580 · -11.9%
• By 2075: 29,268 · -23.2%
• By 2100: 23,909 · -37.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 3% Native American 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Natchitoches

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.4) · D 38.2% · R 60.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -7.3pp · 2024: -22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.4 2020: R+14.9 2016: R+11.0 2012: R+6.6 2008: R+7.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $195,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $199,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $209,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $215,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-06-26 Listed $210,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2004-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $630 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.