7227 Foxvista Ln

Spring, TX 77338

$274,900D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,700 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 409 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,360/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$696
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-274/mo
• Annual: $-3,286/yr
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.27%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $76,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (14.2% below list).
• It's been on market 409 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 409 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.