31 A Rolling Creek Cir

Conway, AR 72032

$138,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 895 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,086/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax + insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $-96/mo
• Annual: $-1,150/yr
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.98%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $38,640

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (21.3% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#71 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Vilonia School District (rural): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #23 of 238 in AR (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vilonia Primary School (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #143 of 454 statewide, top 36%, 345 students, 51% FRL); Frank Mitchell Intermediate School (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #42 of 201 statewide, top 22%, 654 students, 45% FRL); Vilonia High School (math 32% / reading 49%, grade F, #45 of 292 statewide, top 15%, 859 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $138k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.9% in Conway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.