31 A Rolling Creek Cir · Conway, AR 72032

$138,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 895 sqft · SingleFamily · 77 Days on market

Built 1992 10,454 sqft lot $154/sqft · 18% below area Est $169k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a cute move-in ready 2 bedroom 1 Bath starter home or investment property with an open living, kitchen dining area and a view of the woods in the fully fenced back yard. The main bedroom has a walk-in closet. This electric and gas powered home is located outside of Conway city limits. But close enough to enjoy all that Conway offers. Make your appointment today!

Key facts

• View of the woods
• Walk in closet
• Move in ready

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• VIEW OF THE WOODS
• FULLY FENCED BACK YARD
• WALK IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.9% in Conway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#71 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Vilonia School District (rural): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #23 of 238 in AR (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vilonia Primary School (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #143 of 454 statewide, top 36%, 345 students, 51% FRL); Frank Mitchell Intermediate School (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #42 of 201 statewide, top 22%, 654 students, 45% FRL); Vilonia High School (math 32% / reading 49%, grade F, #45 of 292 statewide, top 15%, 859 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $138k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,592 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.98%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,727
• List price: $138,000
• Delta: -18.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-30,433
• Equity at exit: $20,576

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-42,139
• Equity at exit: $11,932

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72032

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,086 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$172 /mo · $2,070/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,207

Max offer price $124,136

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $0	-5% $-48	+0% $-96	+5% $-143	+10% $-191
Rent	-10% $-182	-5% $-139	+0% $-96	+5% $-53	+10% $-10
Rate	-1.0pp $-26	-0.5pp $-61	base $-96	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1A Rolling Creek Cir Conway, AR	3.0	1.0	919	$995	$1.08	21d	1	0.16mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $138,000 Under Contract 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $138,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $138,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $138,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $138,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $138,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $138,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $138,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $138,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $138,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $138,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $138,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $138,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-04-06
    price $138,000 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    This is a cute move-in ready 2 bedroom 1 Bath starter home or investment property with an open living, kitchen dining area and a view of the woods in the fully fenced back yard. The main bedroom has a walk-in closet. This electric and gas powered home is located outside of Conway city limits. But close enough to enjoy all that Conway offers. Make your appointment today!

15. 2026-03-30
    listed $140,000 New Listing 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    This is a cute move-in ready 2 bedroom 1 Bath starter home or investment property with an open living, kitchen dining area and a view of the woods in the fully fenced back yard. The main bedroom has a walk-in closet. This electric and gas powered home is located outside of Conway city limits. But close enough to enjoy all that Conway offers. Make your appointment today!

16. 2020-08-11
    status Under Contract 61-char remark

    Show marketing remark (61 chars)

    Cute home! Fenced in yard. New paint and ready to move into.

17. 2020-08-07
    soldstatus $84,600 Sold 61-char remark

    Show marketing remark (61 chars)

    Cute home! Fenced in yard. New paint and ready to move into.

18. 2020-07-16
    historical Take Backups 61-char remark

    Show marketing remark (61 chars)

    Cute home! Fenced in yard. New paint and ready to move into.

19. 2020-06-04
    status Under Contract 61-char remark

    Show marketing remark (61 chars)

    Cute home! Fenced in yard. New paint and ready to move into.

20. 2020-05-09
    listed $89,500 New Listing 61-char remark

    Show marketing remark (61 chars)

    Cute home! Fenced in yard. New paint and ready to move into.

21. 2020-04-10
    listed $85,000 New Listing
22. 2020-04-10
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$2,070
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,042
• − Management: −$1,042
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable loss: −$3,559
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$854
• After-tax cash flow: $-296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vilonia School District
• NCES district ID: 0513530
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,913
• Composite: 40.64/100
• National rank: #3681
• State rank: #23 of 238 in AR

Livability — Conway

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #8673

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Faulkner County · 103,634 people
• City population: 84,754
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 34,469
• Household income: $64,695
• Rent vs Own: 36.6% rent · 63.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 916.0

Population outlook (Faulkner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,985 people
• By 2030: 148,264 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 166,010 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 183,362 · +31.9%
• By 2075: 224,593 · +61.6%
• By 2100: 250,603 · +80.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Faulkner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.3) · D 32.6% · R 64.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.3pp · 2024: -32.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.3 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.15%
• Current HPI: 234.6331
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+62.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $138,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $140,000 CARMLS
• 2020-08-11 Pending — CARMLS
• 2020-08-07 Sold (MLS) $84,600 CARMLS
• 2020-07-16 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2020-06-04 Pending — CARMLS
• 2020-05-09 Listed $89,500 CARMLS
• 2020-04-10 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2020-04-10 Listed $85,000 CARMLS