Tbb Baywood Ests

Center Moriches, NY 11934

$995,000C+

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,850 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $20,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax + insurance: −$1,658
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $8,924/mo
• Annual: $107,085/yr
• Cap rate: 17.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.44%
• DSCR: 2.71
• 1% rule: 2.01%
• Cash to close: $278,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $995k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($107k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $995k).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($905k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $905k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#641 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Center Moriches Union Free School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #188 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $279k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 1.9% in Center Moriches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.