Tbb Baywood Ests · Center Moriches, NY 11934

$995,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 105 Days on market

Built 2025 1.50 ac lot Est $818k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

To Be Built-Last Lot in 4 Lot Baywood Estates Subdivision!!! This 2,850 Sq Ft Colonial will feature 5 Bedrooms & 2.5 Bathrooms, 2 Story Entry Foyer, Formal Living Room & Formal Dining Room, Eik W/ Island Open to Den W/ Optional Fireplace, Granite Counters, Oak First Floor, Central Air, Primary Bedroom W/ Tray Ceiling, Wic, & Spa Like Bathroom, Full Basement & 2 Car Garage. Plans can be customized to suite. Photos show some optional upgrades.

Key facts

• 1.5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $995k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($107k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $995k).
• Recommended offer: $905k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 1.9% in Center Moriches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#641 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Center Moriches Union Free School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #188 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $279k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($905k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $905,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.44%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $817,950
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
TBB New Baywood Ests	0.00mi	5/2.5	2,850 (0%)	5mo	$902,483	$317	96
N/C Baywood Path	0.00mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,650 (-7%)	6mo	$846,148	$319	78
26 Clinton St	0.29mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,724 (-4%)	2mo	$720,000	$264	72
10 Ocean Ave	0.11mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,000 (+5%)	20mo	$662,500	$221	63
10 Crosby St	0.57mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,562 (-10%)	20mo	$735,000	$287	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $407,429
• Equity at exit: $148,358

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $1,087,863
• Equity at exit: $86,029

Cash invested: $278,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11934

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,244 /mo · $14,925/yr
• Insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $8,924

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,704

Max offer price $995,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,611	-5% $9,268	+0% $8,924	+5% $8,580	+10% $8,236
Rent	-10% $7,344	-5% $8,134	+0% $8,924	+5% $9,714	+10% $10,504
Rate	-1.0pp $9,425	-0.5pp $9,177	base $8,924	+0.5pp $8,666	+1.0pp $8,404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $248,750
• Closing costs: $29,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Tuthill Point Rd East Moriches, NY	5.0	3.0	3000	$20,000	$6.67	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-08-28
   status Pending
2. 2025-05-15
   listed $995,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $240,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,735
• − Property taxes: −$14,925
• − Insurance: −$4,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,200
• − Management: −$19,200
• − Depreciation: −$28,945
• Taxable income: $97,019
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$23,285
• After-tax cash flow: $83,801/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Center Moriches Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3606840
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $86,698
• Composite: 54.64/100
• National rank: #1332
• State rank: #188 of 590 in NY

Livability — Center Moriches

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #641
• US rank: #11936

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Center Moriches, NY
• City population: 8,222
• Population (ZIP): 8,222

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.89%
• Current HPI: 350.6186
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Listed $995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid