5812 Haney Dr

Watauga, TX 76148

$239,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,080/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $78/mo
• Annual: $933/yr
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.39%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $66,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($933/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (13.0% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $208k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#105 in TX, #3,500 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Birdville ISD (suburban): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Watauga El (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,221 of 4,322 statewide, top 75%, 715 students, 80% FRL); Watauga Middle (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 608 students, 71% FRL); Haltom H S (math 37% / reading 48%, grade F, #721 of 1,632 statewide, top 45%, 2,785 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.6% in Watauga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.