16322 Towerview Cir

Centerville, CA 96001

$159,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Active · 446 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,397/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $121/mo
• Annual: $1,453/yr
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.26%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $121 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (12.2% below list).
• It's been on market 446 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#872 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Grant Elementary (math 65% / reading 80%, grade A, #116 of 1,571 statewide, top 8%, 643 students, 18% FRL); Shasta High (math 53% / reading 76%, grade B-, #165 of 1,170 statewide, top 15%, 1,333 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 16% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 54% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Shasta Union High average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $159k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 1.7% in Centerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 446 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.